World Politics · resolved market
Rachel Reeves out as Chancellor of the Exchequer by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x588d9a10f18134f9d5f714bad0ff775be838150f30a3647be9bbbe7242ca01f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,909
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,627
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,909 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x334e…93c3backed Yes | 13c | 3,058$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.73 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73bb…9473backed Yes | 16c | 2,889$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63e2…aa04backed Yes | 18c | 2,436$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c07…ed9ebacked Yes | 18c | 2,200$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 10c | 2,193$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.11 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510e…641fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,166$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…6d57backed Yes | 12c | 1,061$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,045$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 179 | 21.2%38 W · 141 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58ac…d9e3backed Yes | 17c | 1,041$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.51 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 11c | 900.51$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.05 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 800.92$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.57 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x567e…58cebacked Yes | 9c | 800$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02a5…55bdbacked Yes | 9c | 789.07$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb826…2606backed Yes | 16c | 699.23$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdadd…bfdebacked Yes | 19c | 534$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa561…8976backed Yes | 14c | 423.4$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed No | 77c | 417.42$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.3 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c1…0791backed Yes | 7c | 375$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 14c | 337.4$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 7c | 311.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Yes | 6c | 302$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 5c | 274.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…0e01backed Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 9c | 238.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 14cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf55…446dbacked Yes | 17c | 235.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 232.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…f5acbacked Yes | 17c | 231.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3790…c6a8backed Yes | 12c | 220$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffa…1c1fbacked Yes | 7c | 206.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…e816backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe60…2212backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60b3…55cfbacked Yes | 11c | 194$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 15c | 187.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…5f86backed Yes | 25c | 176.68$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…3761backed Yes | 9c | 175.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Yes | 13c | 169.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ba…fbeebacked Yes | 15c | 165.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…f404backed Yes | 7c | 146$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf79d…4350backed Yes | 35c | 144.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacad…7ba9backed Yes | 14c | 142$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 10c | 135.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 149 | 4.7%7 W · 142 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8930…9ac8backed Yes | 18c | 119.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6051…2503backed Yes | 16c | 107.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 18c | 104.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfa21…c733backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 26cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d12…ae23backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…e011backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c8…c77fbacked Yes | 18c | 77.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 78c | 75.73$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed Yes | 16c | 74.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77e2…b6f2backed Yes | 17c | 70.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed No | 31c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3809…81bdbacked No | 73c | 29.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…9f0ebacked No | 74c | 26.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7db…d69cbacked No | 66c | 18.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb2…c640backed No | 79c | 13.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.