World Politics · resolved market
Lee Jae-myung arrested in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3a93207a5710d8a4024cf4679a221d7ffbc4229938eb97ef3937488fb4d70b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $829,952
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,486,856
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $829,952 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc370…98ebbacked Yes | 11c | 16,235$1,862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,861.88 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…1339backed Yes | 13c | 7,881$1,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,042.91 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 6c | 7,606$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.24 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e11…b846backed Yes | 8c | 3,172$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.52 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.68 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…5de7backed Yes | 5c | 1,904$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 4cpaid | +657.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68e7…57f0backed Yes | 5c | 1,860$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 9c | 1,559$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.48 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 7c | 1,439$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.72 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 9c | 1,302$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.27 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 2c | 1,246$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 134 | 4.5%6 W · 128 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf13…690abacked No | 62c | 1,218$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.29 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5209…b232backed Yes | 5c | 1,210$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.4 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 2c | 1,200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 131 | 18.3%24 W · 107 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6029…e961backed Yes | 8c | 1,198$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff9e…56a1backed No | 80c | 1,174$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.4 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed Yes | 2c | 1,163$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 10c | 1,129$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.6 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3e…41f0backed Yes | 40c | 1,029$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…23bebacked Yes | 6c | 943.39$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 5c | 924.08$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…7b7dbacked Yes | 6c | 898.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3c…b218backed Yes | 24c | 864.81$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.46 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x079e…b6d0backed Yes | 7c | 819.44$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11b2…7c70backed Yes | 6c | 711$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 11c | 690.76$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.97 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75b1…e2e8backed Yes | 51c | 656.01$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.26 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc1…60acbacked Yes | 5c | 648.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 3c | 633.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8354…9391backed Yes | 2c | 614.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9d…9de8backed Yes | 9c | 605.64$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.51 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked No | 73c | 595.16$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.68 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa934…c6fabacked Yes | 25c | 543.46$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 6c | 478.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaabd…fbd7backed Yes | 25c | 467.99$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6891…949fbacked Yes | 6c | 399.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…9862backed Yes | 12c | 392.64$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.16 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda43…480fbacked Yes | 6c | 387.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa699…785fbacked No | 50c | 353.7$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.17 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c51…e2a1backed Yes | 31c | 348.72$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…8f27backed Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +87%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2220…9c74backed Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 6c | 257$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c7…815abacked Yes | 8c | 251$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98a0…be53backed Yes | 40c | 234.21$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.68 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…f1b4backed Yes | 6c | 233.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…064bbacked Yes | 6c | 222$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d3…4c9fbacked Yes | 25c | 221.9$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ba…b2c4backed Yes | 9c | 198.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3d…615ebacked Yes | 10c | 198$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb512…aba5backed Yes | 6c | 188.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…77a4backed No | 56c | 181.39$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.96 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18d…9863backed Yes | 13c | 172.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed Yes | 14c | 151.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 10c | 150.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa698…f763backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91b9…dcd8backed Yes | 15c | 140$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7abb…3238backed No | 79c | 128$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1844…1d55backed Yes | 39c | 112.2$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 25c | 103$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 100 | 14%14 W · 86 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x456a…f1bfbacked Yes | 29c | 97.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad8…669dbacked Yes | 49c | 81.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…559cbacked Yes | 23c | 70.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed No | 57c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 32c | 68.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8815…e147backed No | 62c | 68.66$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…2486backed Yes | 32c | 67.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c2…1cbfbacked Yes | 49c | 59.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…ffd9backed Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 61c | 25.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fa…e1f1backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +221.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x093b…6758backed No | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +106.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.