Commodities · resolved market
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x962120c2418a0a31003eaaad240201cb998c2b19530d7c2e2a18540b33aa32af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,570
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,422
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,570 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa510…1f80backed No | 0c | 14,443$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -92.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 26c | 899.99$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.8 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed Yes | 42c | 835.96$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aea…79c1backed Yes | 31c | 705.04$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +209.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 12c | 670.84$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 28c | 650.12$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.05 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 68c | 599.98$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.99 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…0d5ebacked No | 70c | 499.5$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.4 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed No | 11c | 459$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 8c | 414.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 23c | 391.3$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +13.8wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0435…cf1dbacked No | 58c | 310$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 32c | 300$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…5b03backed Yes | 61c | 221.79$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.97 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x706c…bd2cbacked Yes | 38c | 194.57$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +110.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 16c | 166.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 120 | 11.7%14 W · 106 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +178.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…31f5backed No | 52c | 130$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7b…d463backed No | 16c | 107.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebcf…086abacked No | 28c | 89.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 21c | 88.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc935…74cfbacked No | 42c | 69.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 68c | 58.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 185 | 40.5%75 W · 110 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e1…e46fbacked Yes | 61c | 56.37$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xed73…4465backed No | 68c | 45.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4a…1b2fbacked No | 67c | 43.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…4e30backed No | 65c | 30.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.