Movies · resolved market
Will 'Smile 2' gross more than $27m opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1aba840e43db7e689f3d908e488015ba830ee9b31990f8209473f5eabbe36544
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $190,193
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $135,456
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $190,193 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 1c | 29,582$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.42 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6495…b185backed Yes | 1c | 25,202$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…2192backed Yes | 2c | 14,382$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…be38backed Yes | 4c | 11,218$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.89 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe43d…15a2backed Yes | 0c | 9,884$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…a83cbacked Yes | 1c | 6,000$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 0c | 4,908$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x767c…ca6abacked Yes | 1c | 4,448$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed Yes | 4c | 3,825$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.68 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e82…6bacbacked Yes | 5c | 3,627$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.36 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14fb…bee1backed Yes | 2c | 3,445$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c4…d1c7backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9627…432fbacked Yes | 2c | 3,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0c…542bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,191$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab64…d070backed Yes | 12c | 2,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed Yes | 15c | 1,840$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.91 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6be6…2006backed Yes | 10c | 1,594$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.02 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ed…ce35backed Yes | 5c | 1,500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9283…4fc9backed Yes | 7c | 1,202$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -73%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 1,128$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.17 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b6…bb1cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,020$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.01 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -48%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d2…4f4bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f9…3ac0backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76d2…6369backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab74…3996backed Yes | 3c | 995.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62e4…184ebacked Yes | 16c | 697.05$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e38…879bbacked Yes | 13c | 574.72$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cce…44b9backed Yes | 20c | 510.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…245ebacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 3c | 485.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…c1a8backed Yes | 7c | 390.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd431…1dfbbacked Yes | 4c | 333.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb236…1d5dbacked Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ab…3afdbacked Yes | 4c | 234.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc574…664bbacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes | 12c | 163.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 25cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 16c | 160$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…a4bbbacked No | 75c | 26.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Smile 2' gross more than $27m opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Smile 2' gross $21-24m opening weekend?Yes won
- Will 'Smile 2' gross $24-27m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Smile 2' gross less than $21m opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.