Movies · resolved market
Will 'Smile 2' gross $21-24m opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0887a752d4b74ef06b0000fa3d695cb0c90f7af2da48141c7e45acdeb11bc9e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $158,852
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $218,491
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $158,852 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86a2…be38backed No | 29c | 7,603$2,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,198.74 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked No | 2c | 5,940$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.6 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e82…6bacbacked Yes | 60c | 4,832$2,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,941.73 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…a83cbacked No | 24c | 4,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 9c | 3,959$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.35 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 46c | 2,201$1,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,187.8 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes | 69c | 1,880$1,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.77 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f62…38fcbacked Yes | 63c | 1,400$886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.62 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed Yes | 40c | 1,379$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832.21 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Yes | 31c | 1,323$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$911.71 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d2…4f4bbacked Yes | 43c | 1,137$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.26 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…a4bbbacked Yes | 69c | 1,119$774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.42 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x719d…4e73backed No | 2c | 1,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 27c | 778.57$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.36 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba73…0cfdbacked Yes | 66c | 752.67$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.44 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +9.6wins | +0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed Yes | 54c | 735$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.68 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 67c | 681.6$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.32 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa5…7e01backed No | 18c | 617.33$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb236…1d5dbacked No | 2c | 599.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9283…4fc9backed No | 19c | 575.84$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -73%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 33c | 507.44$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.73 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fa…77b5backed Yes | 66c | 500$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 69c | 485.21$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.13 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…3d68backed No | 19c | 455.25$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 59c | 441.24$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.06 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…b081backed Yes | 76c | 400$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.93 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Yes | 60c | 326.3$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.98 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcda1…d9adbacked No | 23c | 320$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f6…342dbacked No | 53c | 284.97$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cce…44b9backed Yes | 35c | 283.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked No | 20c | 222$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Yes | 64c | 164.15$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.09 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85ab…8b3cbacked Yes | 57c | 158.45$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.45 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 34c | 154$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +197.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…03e7backed Yes | 55c | 145.41$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 27c | 137.79$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.22 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1a…e11bbacked Yes | 26c | 136.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe19…161dbacked Yes | 24c | 132.42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.64 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76d2…6369backed Yes | 77c | 130.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 26c | 130.03$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.22 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | +8.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf07c…a638backed No | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 33c | 120.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.61 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 39c | 116.35$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.15 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed Yes | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 39cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 29c | 90$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 59 | 20.3%12 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked Yes | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62e4…184ebacked No | 64c | 46.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x892d…f806backed Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +104.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed No | 51c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe32c…0c09backed Yes | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48da…0419backed Yes | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Smile 2' gross $21-24m opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Smile 2' gross $24-27m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Smile 2' gross less than $21m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Smile 2' gross more than $27m opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.