Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump's approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.4% on March 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x230345d8347fddd7a16eda7166f97f95e9f07c552b3a456060ce9a58af5c66b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,144
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,912
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,144 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 11c | 1,311$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.06 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 29c | 1,232$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.12 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes | 43c | 1,128$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.16 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…c282backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 6c | 299.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 26c | 230$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 32c | 200.18$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.7 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 80 | 57.5%46 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x992f…6c44backed No | 71c | 149.7$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed Yes | 28c | 142.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e77…e626backed Yes | 24c | 129.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb495…4bbbbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 119.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b56…1593backed Yes | 32c | 113$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f9…b09ebacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…2f18backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 56c | 97.29$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 12c | 89.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa568…12f6backed Yes | 35c | 88.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 75c | 88.33$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 25c | 86.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed No | 55c | 82.94$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 74 | 75.7%56 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed Yes | 42c | 65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 30c | 63.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x284c…57e0backed No | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x138e…42b4backed No | 64c | 57.96$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…92c0backed No | 71c | 37.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28de…a1fdbacked Yes | 29c | 37.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…8b08backed Yes | 31c | 35.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff20…2efcbacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.4% on March 14?this page
- Will Trump's approval rating be 49.0% or higher on March 14?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 47.0% and 47.4% on March 14?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 47.5% and 47.9% on March 14?Yes won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 48.5% and 48.9% on March 14?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be less than 47.0% on March 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.