Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 47.0% on March 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2a36ff2a1fe9dd8624b84dd7671c7fbf2d766df1b7915654bb0e570551c3bdc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,179
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,276
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,179 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,766$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d8…2df1backed Yes | 4c | 1,200$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 6c | 1,081$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.78 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f3…c830backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 967.13$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0538…40f3backed Yes | 6c | 939.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…9b7abacked Yes | 5c | 884$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.69 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…b661backed Yes | 6c | 847.18$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.79 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 6c | 843.69$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.11 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x442a…b330backed Yes | 2c | 829.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 5c | 777.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.09 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 4c | 705.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…2f18backed Yes | 21c | 416.05$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.38 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 4c | 355.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb495…4bbbbacked Yes | 14c | 346.63$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd69a…81eabacked Yes | 16c | 229.56$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x207a…6fecbacked Yes | 5c | 225$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6072…fb46backed Yes | 4c | 223.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x824d…1271backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd1…a18fbacked Yes | 10c | 192.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcaf…7d43backed Yes | 9c | 152.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddca…41c5backed Yes | 9c | 138.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed Yes | 23c | 95.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…596bbacked Yes | 22c | 90.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e99…9206backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8e…0045backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x465a…1853backed Yes | 36c | 56.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f78…4ff4backed Yes | 37c | 29.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -30%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump's approval rating be less than 47.0% on March 14?this page
- Will Trump's approval rating be 49.0% or higher on March 14?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 47.0% and 47.4% on March 14?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 47.5% and 47.9% on March 14?Yes won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.4% on March 14?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 48.5% and 48.9% on March 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.