Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump's approval rating be between 47.5% and 47.9% on March 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47465c58ffdb2048b8ac8114f62e0cc7c6177dc53ea13ae1a456a8c140fa382d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,022
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,938
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,022 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 50c | 1,353$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.42 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes | 55c | 738.29$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.62 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 20c | 386.42$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.31 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 53c | 360$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.65 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38cc…f88ebacked Yes | 49c | 322.03$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.19 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 33c | 321.33$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.63 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 32c | 272.06$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.71 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf789…c4ccbacked No | 46c | 206.57$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.86 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.26per pick | 33cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x70a9…6a74backed No | 53c | 199.99$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 33c | 177.18$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.62 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 176$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.9 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…aee5backed Yes | 64c | 174$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.49 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2c…dc30backed Yes | 61c | 162.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.96 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e77…e626backed Yes | 46c | 140$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.8 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d0…4e7dbacked Yes | 45c | 139.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.99 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes | 71c | 128.68$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.03 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 52c | 123.67$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.04 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b56…1593backed Yes | 48c | 108.96$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 14c | 104.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 46c | 100.79$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.66 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb495…4bbbbacked Yes | 51c | 97.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 57c | 75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 78c | 75$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 80 | 57.5%46 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdad…d8b0backed Yes | 69c | 72.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 59cpaid | +46%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x138e…42b4backed Yes | 43c | 61.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd713…4662backed No | 20c | 60.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 54c | 53.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…d326backed No | 55c | 45.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0de4…2d29backed Yes | 66c | 42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…b571backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf99d…bd1ebacked Yes | 68c | 41.18$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.35per pick | 46cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 40.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa568…12f6backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e25…0667backed Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc126…26c6backed Yes | 66c | 39.02$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39d1…e40fbacked No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4620…2a6ebacked Yes | 65c | 35.36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed No | 65c | 35.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 74 | 75.7%56 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…9fd1backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85ab…8b3cbacked Yes | 47c | 23.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…8b08backed Yes | 47c | 23.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca2…b43fbacked Yes | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 47c | 21.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…dc41backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2e…4d83backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 47.5% and 47.9% on March 14?this page
- Will Trump's approval rating be 49.0% or higher on March 14?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 47.0% and 47.4% on March 14?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.4% on March 14?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 48.5% and 48.9% on March 14?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be less than 47.0% on March 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.