TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Donald Trump say Pay 5+ times during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,153
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,293

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,153 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5091…23e9backed No67c530$358 inWon+$172.443444.1%15 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b88…d628backed Yes46c400$184 inLost-$183.933348.5%16 W · 17 L+6.3wins+0.19per pick30cpaid+24%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x879b…2f18backed Yes37c305$112 inLost-$111.952737%10 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No63c300.76$189 inWon+$111.7218036.7%66 W · 114 L-0.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid+15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2880…fa70backed No63c284$180 inWon+$103.831942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-27.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes32c247.26$78 inLost-$78.413020%6 W · 24 L-5.7wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-56.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No56c200$112 inWon+$8854934.6%190 W · 359 L-37.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4225…3b42backed Yes43c200$86 inLost-$8610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27c6…2e3dbacked Yes26c173$45 inLost-$44.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3952…3675backed Yes26c154$40 inLost-$40.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99b4…aa0bbacked No57c150$86 inWon+$64.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9abc…9126backed No74c142$105 inWon+$36.92250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-32.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes34c127$44 inLost-$43.581,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a5b…7f54backed No74c122$90 inWon+$31.722100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+64.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab8a…99a1backed Yes39c120$47 inLost-$46.820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef5c…ae33backed Yes33c100$33 inLost-$332157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+44.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x014d…2803backed No61c95$58 inWon+$37.05366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+55.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9e0…a53bbacked Yes48c94.5$45 inLost-$45.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Yes35c72$25 inLost-$24.994042.5%17 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid+23.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1d0…1db8backed No74c59$44 inWon+$15.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No64c50$32 inWon+$183148.4%15 W · 16 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+2.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No50c50$25 inWon+$2516744.3%74 W · 93 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4bc6…4ddebacked Yes50c50$25 inLost-$25333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick65cpaid-56.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No64c50$32 inWon+$18.177944.3%35 W · 44 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1f0…e173backed Yes30c50$15 inLost-$15425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-28.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf50…fa70backed No57c50$29 inWon+$21.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9eb…0ee5backed Yes33c45$15 inLost-$14.85250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74ac…402dbacked Yes26c42$11 inLost-$10.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde26…0972backed No56c40$22 inWon+$17.65754.4%31 W · 26 L-6.4wins-0.11per pick66cpaid-17.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8021…3c44backed Yes50c30$15 inLost-$15666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca69…8bb6backed No61c25$15 inWon+$9.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49fd…0198backed No78c20$16 inWon+$4.46920.3%14 W · 55 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-41.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x188b…8ef3backed No74c16$12 inWon+$4.163100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+42.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ca7…3444backed No74c16$12 inWon+$4.162100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+86.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x205e…7c25backed No74c14$10 inWon+$3.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.