World Politics · resolved market
Will Donald Trump say Germany during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd835fd5b33dace0653294234adf0c8e3e7e2c83c0da13b36e2887acb520cf8c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,734
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,271
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,734 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0e99…769abacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -78%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 55c | 1,000$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.05 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes | 51c | 665$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.45 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 50c | 415.64$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.08 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…2f18backed Yes | 26c | 280$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.7 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 71c | 210$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.4 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b88…d628backed Yes | 33c | 200$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +6.3wins | +0.19per pick | 30cpaid | +24%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes | 31c | 178$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.82 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 70c | 121.76$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.85 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -5.7wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ae…5b40backed No | 77c | 121$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…6351backed No | 66c | 111$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef5c…ae33backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03e6…0f31backed Yes | 23c | 79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc9…8cc7backed Yes | 23c | 75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf67d…7ffbbacked Yes | 23c | 65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…9defbacked Yes | 23c | 62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc61f…df57backed Yes | 23c | 48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c76…d4eebacked Yes | 43c | 46.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.6wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +118%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 31c | 44.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9aa…303dbacked Yes | 34c | 44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…c3eebacked Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d1…6317backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +163.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6f…182ebacked No | 77c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8785…aa99backed No | 77c | 23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe22c…dcf4backed No | 77c | 23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa954…582bbacked No | 77c | 23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e33…cb5fbacked No | 77c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 71c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb997…0bf9backed No | 77c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a0…aec2backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…a53abacked No | 77c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b6…4e43backed No | 77c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56a4…8123backed No | 77c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89cd…0029backed No | 77c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 69 | 20.3%14 W · 55 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc590…c27dbacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump say Germany during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?this page
- Will Donald Trump say AI or Artificial Intelligence during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?No won
- Will Donald Trump say Beautiful 5+ times during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say Climate during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?No won
- Will Donald Trump say Crypto or Bitcoin during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?No won
- Will Donald Trump say Drone during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?No won
- Will Donald Trump say Egg during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?No won
- Will Donald Trump say Elon during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?No won
- Will Donald Trump say Gaza during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say Gold during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?No won
- Will Donald Trump say Hell 5+ times during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?No won
- Will Donald Trump say Million 15+ times during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?No won
- Will Donald Trump say Mineral during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say NATO 3+ times during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say Pay 5+ times during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?No won
- Will Donald Trump say Pond during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?No won
- Will Donald Trump say Putin 3+ times during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say Tariff 5+ times during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say UK or United Kingdom 15+ times during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?No won
- Will Donald Trump say US or United States 15+ times during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?No won
- Will Donald Trump say Ukraine 10+ times during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say Zelensky 3+ times during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.