TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Donald Trump say Crypto or Bitcoin during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,625
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,157

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,625 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 8 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x75db…2098backed Yes6c913$56 inLost-$56.3425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-68.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb09…0f04backed Yes6c855.58$50 inLost-$50.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b88…d628backed Yes7c500$35 inLost-$34.543348.5%16 W · 17 L+6.3wins+0.19per pick30cpaid+24%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9abc…9126backed Yes10c263$26 inLost-$26.3250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-32.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97d4…80b3backed Yes9c211.11$19 inLost-$1910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x241f…ef50backed Yes7c182.11$13 inLost-$13.464327.9%12 W · 31 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick19cpaid+189.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9478…60ddbacked Yes9c154$14 inLost-$13.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb318…4e77backed Yes13c85$11 inLost-$11.05250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.