TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Donald Trump say AI or Artificial Intelligence during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,372
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,174

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,372 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x827b…01cebacked Yes13c413.71$53 inLost-$53.038337.3%31 W · 52 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+104%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5073…c93cbacked Yes16c269.99$43 inLost-$4320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e72…fcc6backed Yes14c182$25 inLost-$25.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c41…133ebacked Yes11c178.31$20 inLost-$19.616533.8%22 W · 43 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes23c111$26 inLost-$25.887740.3%31 W · 46 L-0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f7a…c585backed Yes12c104.39$12 inLost-$12.297424.3%18 W · 56 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-23.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe860…cdaabacked Yes45c62.63$28 inLost-$28771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick55cpaid+24.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe1e…4aa1backed Yes21c60$13 inLost-$12.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbde8…a083backed Yes37c40$15 inLost-$14.810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x47f1…9d31backed No63c40$25 inWon+$14.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b7c…51cbbacked Yes34c30$10 inLost-$10.2933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92b7…445abacked No63c28$18 inWon+$10.36250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7eb4…bf69backed Yes37c28$10 inLost-$10.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc623…3ba8backed No77c25.97$20 inWon+$5.97333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-56.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x041c…88c5backed No78c25$20 inWon+$5.5650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed No78c23$18 inWon+$5.061050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde26…0972backed No76c20.63$16 inWon+$4.965754.4%31 W · 26 L-6.4wins-0.11per pick66cpaid-17.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1203…060dbacked No79c20$16 inWon+$4.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x072b…0768backed No79c20$16 inWon+$4.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31bd…1f4fbacked No79c20$16 inWon+$4.22100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.