World Politics · resolved market
Will Donald Trump say NATO 3+ times during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc00d2cfef042bea8eacd935c4e4799ca63d4173738846804f1fb97e8794fc03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,612
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,081
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,612 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 6c | 1,942$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.61 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +104%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 3c | 940.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed No | 63c | 415.27$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.82 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes | 38c | 378.64$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.07 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 64c | 349.21$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.5 | 180 | 36.7%66 W · 114 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 66c | 330$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.9 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad5…52c7backed No | 65c | 308.46$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.37 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed No | 68c | 307$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.85 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1962…01babacked Yes | 31c | 299$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x095f…41b7backed Yes | 36c | 286.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.59 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6713…e1d4backed No | 69c | 276$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 36c | 271.72$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.85 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes | 79c | 263.7$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.42 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…2f18backed Yes | 35c | 260$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.5 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef5c…ae33backed No | 67c | 225$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 69c | 200$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0532…0b95backed No | 46c | 197.5$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.54 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 63c | 175$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.75 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae2b…9cc3backed Yes | 31c | 162.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 31c | 150$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 69 | 20.3%14 W · 55 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c76…d4eebacked Yes | 38c | 130.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.34 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.6wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +118%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7192…e27ebacked No | 60c | 114$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 109.49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.06 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ad…9162backed No | 69c | 107$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +75%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…3581backed Yes | 40c | 90$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaef6…ebe8backed No | 67c | 88$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed Yes | 31c | 75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.7 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +189.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 34c | 70.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.6 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…5443backed Yes | 40c | 61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +112%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc932…1273backed Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5b…c483backed Yes | 31c | 56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d82…9d13backed Yes | 33c | 52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d59…b44cbacked Yes | 37c | 47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b40…5337backed Yes | 31c | 47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x223b…c968backed No | 75c | 47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f6…f387backed Yes | 25c | 47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ab…da59backed Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5a…1e32backed Yes | 37c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 59cpaid | +97.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebfd…39b9backed Yes | 40c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…ad82backed Yes | 37c | 42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8beb…355fbacked Yes | 37c | 41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 63c | 39.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.22per pick | 59cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96db…9be8backed Yes | 33c | 39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cb…d37bbacked Yes | 40c | 39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2427…098fbacked Yes | 33c | 34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…581bbacked No | 60c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ce…b990backed No | 60c | 31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf37…f7c4backed No | 60c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x990f…5f1cbacked Yes | 40c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69c3…6937backed No | 63c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacbb…5514backed No | 63c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9478…60ddbacked No | 63c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8021…3c44backed Yes | 59c | 25.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76a7…cd17backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0757…bf34backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa977…ec63backed No | 69c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d3…1b61backed No | 63c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2834…ce3dbacked No | 69c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5c…a899backed No | 60c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x568f…b817backed No | 60c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca2…0288backed No | 69c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffde…cb8dbacked No | 67c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 79c | 21.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ed…6d99backed No | 63c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2497…499ebacked No | 69c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed No | 61c | 18.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1819…b33ebacked No | 69c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x016e…e83abacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump say NATO 3+ times during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?this page
- Will Donald Trump say AI or Artificial Intelligence during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?No won
- Will Donald Trump say Beautiful 5+ times during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say Climate during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?No won
- Will Donald Trump say Crypto or Bitcoin during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?No won
- Will Donald Trump say Drone during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?No won
- Will Donald Trump say Egg during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?No won
- Will Donald Trump say Elon during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?No won
- Will Donald Trump say Gaza during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say Germany during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say Gold during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?No won
- Will Donald Trump say Hell 5+ times during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?No won
- Will Donald Trump say Million 15+ times during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?No won
- Will Donald Trump say Mineral during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say Pay 5+ times during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?No won
- Will Donald Trump say Pond during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?No won
- Will Donald Trump say Putin 3+ times during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say Tariff 5+ times during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say UK or United Kingdom 15+ times during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?No won
- Will Donald Trump say US or United States 15+ times during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?No won
- Will Donald Trump say Ukraine 10+ times during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say Zelensky 3+ times during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.