World Politics · resolved market
Will Donald Trump say Elon during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5dea00cc2c46b070f927d1a0d78a511f3ee37b7b9af820e402302a5f9344c372
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,073
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,981
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,073 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +30%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed No | 57c | 532.77$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.55 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5073…c93cbacked Yes | 32c | 350.88$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 45c | 309.8$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.49 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +104%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 29c | 285.45$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.86 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 63c | 230$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.4 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 37c | 195$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.65 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Yes | 38c | 195$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.1 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed No | 78c | 153.54$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed Yes | 36c | 137.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 35c | 127$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes | 26c | 118.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 109.67$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.08 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef5c…ae33backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf41…1587backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…6611backed No | 60c | 98$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76a4…fd16backed No | 70c | 95.55$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Yes | 25c | 79.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…45fbbacked No | 72c | 65.14$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd153…5472backed Yes | 29c | 61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed No | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ead…bf03backed Yes | 40c | 52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 69 | 20.3%14 W · 55 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 180 | 36.7%66 W · 114 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x568b…097bbacked Yes | 37c | 47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d6…7acebacked Yes | 40c | 46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ca…9c0abacked No | 65c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4399…dc44backed Yes | 38c | 41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb79c…f7f2backed No | 56c | 37.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4298…f07dbacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b5…020abacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd3…c8e2backed No | 62c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdde5…e43cbacked Yes | 44c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +142.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d9…d32abacked No | 63c | 23.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23de…a237backed No | 71c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x290f…9b39backed No | 71c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9043…9703backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8021…3c44backed No | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7f…470bbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump say Elon during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?this page
- Will Donald Trump say AI or Artificial Intelligence during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?No won
- Will Donald Trump say Beautiful 5+ times during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say Climate during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?No won
- Will Donald Trump say Crypto or Bitcoin during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?No won
- Will Donald Trump say Drone during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?No won
- Will Donald Trump say Egg during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?No won
- Will Donald Trump say Gaza during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say Germany during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say Gold during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?No won
- Will Donald Trump say Hell 5+ times during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?No won
- Will Donald Trump say Million 15+ times during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?No won
- Will Donald Trump say Mineral during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say NATO 3+ times during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say Pay 5+ times during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?No won
- Will Donald Trump say Pond during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?No won
- Will Donald Trump say Putin 3+ times during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say Tariff 5+ times during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say UK or United Kingdom 15+ times during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?No won
- Will Donald Trump say US or United States 15+ times during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?No won
- Will Donald Trump say Ukraine 10+ times during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say Zelensky 3+ times during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.