Tweets · resolved market
Will Ye tweet again by next Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3875eba896df11e4c04c04f863a09cd6b11d4a9faf70cd1c77ce402b2da3f0bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,394
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,049
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,394 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33c2…9818backed No | 67c | 7,432$5,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,011.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 30c | 4,506$1,352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,154.19 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked Yes | 40c | 2,382$963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,418.51 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 33cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 6c | 1,666$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +179.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…250ebacked Yes | 56c | 1,042$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac9…cf1abacked No | 40c | 999.97$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5724…73e5backed No | 57c | 499.98$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e30…1e50backed Yes | 28c | 422$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.84 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 66c | 300$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 426 | 28.2%120 W · 306 L | -38.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…2f18backed No | 75c | 250$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 72c | 240$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.75 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…1da2backed No | 51c | 233$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked Yes | 27c | 199.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…d678backed Yes | 43c | 186.4$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +133%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe906…5a44backed No | 59c | 168.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdc…0771backed Yes | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c43…626dbacked Yes | 60c | 132.13$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0833…d8fcbacked No | 73c | 123.04$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed Yes | 24c | 122.91$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Yes | 39c | 106.35$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +153.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…10b4backed Yes | 27c | 100.14$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.9 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd477…6c04backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa13b…807cbacked Yes | 30c | 88.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b12…aba8backed Yes | 26c | 79.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 68.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5d…553cbacked Yes | 30c | 67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +235%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56f2…7950backed Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95c9…96afbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1de2…2c83backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 61c | 34.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…9e01backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…c9dbbacked No | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75b9…f7a6backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.