Ukraine · resolved market
Trump severs ties with Ukraine before May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf73ebbd375f4b32f1ac0aee1724fa07288530b0cd3d2fbfbcfc7412d0c6bcb82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $140,572
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $146,097
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $140,572 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd23…0242backed Yes | 4c | 14,376$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.69 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 2c | 9,352$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.06 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 4c | 4,505$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.25 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes | 3c | 4,424$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.71 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…0439backed Yes | 3c | 4,104$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.19 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 2c | 4,012$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.05 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0004…ef4cbacked Yes | 3c | 4,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8558…d6c9backed Yes | 3c | 3,815$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f03…1794backed Yes | 4c | 3,715$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 2c | 3,454$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48d6…f2ffbacked Yes | 2c | 3,011$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,737$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.49 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +6.6wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 2c | 1,737$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe7…9c6dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,467$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 3c | 1,360$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,117$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.68 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…d6fabacked Yes | 3c | 1,070$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.28 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x810c…0a4fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,001$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -68%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71ed…d9ebbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +152%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 3c | 981.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe384…bc6bbacked Yes | 4c | 700$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 684.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe76f…8628backed Yes | 3c | 598.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x197c…6608backed Yes | 2c | 560$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x959c…c05cbacked Yes | 6c | 466.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 2c | 444$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…2f18backed Yes | 5c | 424$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c18…dc3cbacked Yes | 7c | 407.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc205…6f95backed Yes | 4c | 296.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc7…8c0abacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef19…91e7backed Yes | 6c | 186.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x439a…e4e4backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.