Movies · resolved market
Will "A Minecraft Movie" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 30 and 40?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5486eea102bce851fb6337d49a9358b0c9b3b8af27a03b4ee4f6f0d8d2f2eaf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,994
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,302
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,994 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf31a…838bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,387$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 15c | 1,198$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.7 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 21c | 1,193$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.24 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 21c | 584.16$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.67 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.19per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 79c | 583$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.41 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 22c | 573.35$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.09 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76d2…6369backed Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes | 26c | 299.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 23c | 250.2$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.05 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf93…bdc8backed Yes | 47c | 250$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.5 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 23c | 237.65$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.94 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 26c | 219.77$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.41 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed0…2c70backed Yes | 20c | 201$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…8daebacked Yes | 31c | 200.33$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.69 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6718…80d1backed Yes | 9c | 199.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 15c | 145$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 78c | 120$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00fc…c9e8backed Yes | 27c | 114.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 100.2$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d0…4843backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de3…797cbacked Yes | 44c | 90.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 75c | 85$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 131 | 35.1%46 W · 85 L | -14.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…2f18backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x998d…61ccbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 72c | 41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee6…114abacked No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 72c | 36.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98e6…0b0abacked Yes | 42c | 24.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…3039backed No | 72c | 20.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c61…ac8bbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58d9…8590backed No | 72c | 18.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "A Minecraft Movie" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 30 and 40?this page
- Will "A Minecraft Movie" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 40 and 50?Yes won
- Will "A Minecraft Movie" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 50 and 60?No won
- Will "A Minecraft Movie" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 30?No won
- Will "A Minecraft Movie" Rotten Tomatoes score be more than 60?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.