Fifa International · resolved market
Will Poland win on 2025-09-07?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa98cc87153c284cdadaebe67001ce63737f222b282fafec6afa7057a423cf13e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,616
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,154
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,616 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x571c…c16abacked Yes | 64c | 4,702$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,701.53 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 35c | 2,894$1,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,016.97 | 211 | 40.3%85 W · 126 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed No | 36c | 2,804$1,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.41 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…4af9backed No | 35c | 1,697$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594 | 125 | 25.6%32 W · 93 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked No | 36c | 1,500$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545 | 236 | 22%52 W · 184 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 78c | 1,091$847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.35 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked No | 35c | 999.98$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.99 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…3e7abacked Yes | 65c | 769.23$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 15c | 678.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.16 | 281 | 33.1%93 W · 188 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb22a…77c9backed Yes | 65c | 615.38$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.38 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Yes | 65c | 600$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 274 | 34.3%94 W · 180 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed No | 37c | 599.93$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.98 | 96 | 18.8%18 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x377c…91aebacked No | 34c | 593.89$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.92 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed No | 37c | 300$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab6d…b458backed No | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked No | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 34c | 234.34$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.45 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcab…4821backed Yes | 65c | 224.92$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.72 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6849…fbdfbacked Yes | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1734…ddd4backed Yes | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf750…4abbbacked Yes | 63c | 190.48$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.48 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed Yes | 66c | 166.67$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.67 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe540…f9dfbacked Yes | 67c | 165.39$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…4323backed Yes | 67c | 159.72$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.71 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 65c | 154.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.2 | 91 | 40.7%37 W · 54 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 363 | 49.3%179 W · 184 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f7…8dc6backed Yes | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 67c | 143$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.19 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…3ab9backed Yes | 65c | 122.37$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.37 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…f949backed No | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…d217backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…ff53backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…2486backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00af…4e8bbacked Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 36c | 99.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 28c | 96.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x467e…c62dbacked Yes | 63c | 95.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed Yes | 66c | 80$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 263 | 54.8%144 W · 119 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92e2…d22ebacked Yes | 63c | 79.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…2f18backed Yes | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e3…1962backed Yes | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x897b…151ebacked Yes | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab3f…512cbacked Yes | 65c | 73.51$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 65c | 66$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24cf…8455backed Yes | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 360 | 38.1%137 W · 223 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x040d…1a5ebacked No | 33c | 56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 38c | 52.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f31…8427backed Yes | 70c | 40.27$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60e3…08a6backed Yes | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0f…addabacked Yes | 62c | 35.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…31a3backed Yes | 62c | 32.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 60cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…8970backed Yes | 63c | 31.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…0de1backed Yes | 65c | 30.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21cd…e7aabacked Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe83…3b00backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aba…7442backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12e6…5468backed Yes | 67c | 20.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e90…b93bbacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b9…8297backed Yes | 66c | 18.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2711…4019backed Yes | 67c | 16.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bef…c839backed Yes | 63c | 16.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a0…f9d6backed Yes | 67c | 16.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Poland win on 2025-09-07?this page
- Will Finland win on 2025-09-07?No won
- Will Poland vs. Finland end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.