Us Politics · resolved market
Will the US sanction Ukraine before April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69c2da9742638186de095a52f9a6aa9e04ecd622f8d5351160a6ab56bbfa08ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $82,811
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,090
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,811 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbacc…e985backed Yes | 6c | 7,080$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.98 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e49…40f5backed Yes | 7c | 4,055$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec1b…c92fbacked Yes | 6c | 3,132$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.94 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 2c | 2,838$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.12 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 10c | 1,781$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.81 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…272dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,767$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.02 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x008b…439bbacked Yes | 9c | 1,310$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,228$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.75 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28de…a1fdbacked Yes | 9c | 1,151$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.72 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 7c | 1,149$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.03 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 5c | 900$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 135 | 25.9%35 W · 100 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf47…4c2bbacked Yes | 9c | 814.8$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x092f…18acbacked Yes | 4c | 803.4$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 3c | 758.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 4c | 748.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 177 | 13%23 W · 154 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02d2…007bbacked Yes | 10c | 654.78$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81fa…41c9backed Yes | 12c | 583.44$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e75…5eecbacked Yes | 8c | 560$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5177…a0f6backed Yes | 5c | 494.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 5c | 481.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 148 | 19.6%29 W · 119 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 5c | 480.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 7c | 442.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3936…c1c8backed Yes | 7c | 433.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7725…89bcbacked Yes | 7c | 407.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7315…4440backed Yes | 22c | 402.11$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes | 10c | 384.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd7…c0e5backed Yes | 6c | 342.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1202…2725backed Yes | 10c | 318.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 6c | 315$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ba…0672backed Yes | 7c | 307.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5776…b9c4backed Yes | 8c | 303.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c12…7765backed Yes | 7c | 272.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x418f…b7b6backed Yes | 10c | 263.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 11c | 227$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 170 | 21.2%36 W · 134 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked Yes | 7c | 219$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 110 | 31.8%35 W · 75 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…ab69backed Yes | 6c | 210.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe10b…5fe3backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84a9…4eefbacked Yes | 6c | 190.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…c5a1backed Yes | 16c | 182.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8f…f9e9backed Yes | 15c | 179.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 8c | 159$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xebb3…129dbacked Yes | 7c | 157.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b59…ba17backed Yes | 11c | 151.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 11c | 140$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 13c | 120$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7f…ec46backed Yes | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 113$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb678…f74dbacked Yes | 11c | 105.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df5…8b4fbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…2f18backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa84b…e0d9backed Yes | 26c | 96.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7362…2469backed Yes | 11c | 92.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x637c…b68fbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.