Us Politics · resolved market
Will Mike Waltz leave the Trump administration first?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xacc73c257249910e1e07a7d43692336df36116fdca673fc566b17b918293f2d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $163,277
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $162,188
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $163,277 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc164…5fcebacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02f2…2cd0backed No | 5c | 9,854$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x830e…7099backed No | 26c | 8,117$2,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,104.17 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed No | 18c | 7,201$1,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,316.08 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes | 61c | 5,000$3,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,950 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked No | 0c | 5,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked No | 11c | 4,500$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.49 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No | 12c | 3,915$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.4 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 73c | 3,668$2,692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975.46 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 5c | 3,478$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.2 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 78c | 3,434$2,695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.92 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 17c | 3,295$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.68 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 6c | 3,140$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.83 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 66c | 2,733$1,793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.89 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf41…1587backed No | 1c | 2,660$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 2c | 2,165$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 1c | 2,111$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…2f18backed No | 3c | 2,069$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.48 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 17c | 2,000$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0262…a9d2backed No | 30c | 1,847$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.05 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed No | 50c | 1,840$929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$929.07 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 3c | 1,489$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.36 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes | 41c | 1,375$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808.3 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed Yes | 45c | 1,330$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.17 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +10.2wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +133.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1b82…7a36backed Yes | 9c | 1,246$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,132.65 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e5…38aabacked No | 3c | 1,241$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 16c | 1,180$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.87 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked No | 22c | 980.76$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 152 | 43.4%66 W · 86 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes | 8c | 805.48$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.04 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 24c | 794.41$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.8 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed No | 10c | 756.4$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.08 | 88 | 20.5%18 W · 70 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3eb…e855backed Yes | 9c | 682$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.64 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +360.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked No | 33c | 600$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.33 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 23c | 594.06$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.91 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…bbe6backed No | 12c | 491.4$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.24 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc2…76c7backed Yes | 10c | 397.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +98.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fe…3768backed Yes | 9c | 370.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 27cpaid | +357.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed2…3e00backed Yes | 69c | 344.52$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.13 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.4 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 10c | 264$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.6 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 7c | 260$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…edafbacked Yes | 37c | 239.52$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.03 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 79c | 232.73$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.36 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed No | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e6…9767backed No | 35c | 141.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 48c | 96.03$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.78 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 22c | 89.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2fb…5215backed Yes | 60c | 83.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 59c | 80$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…2ae8backed No | 16c | 63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e9…9fb1backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +126.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 77c | 42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 36c | 33.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mike Waltz leave the Trump administration first?this page
- Will Elon Musk leave the Trump administration first?No won
- Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration first?No won
- Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration first?No won
- Will Linda McMahon leave the Trump administration first?No won
- Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration first?No won
- Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration first?No won
- Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration first?No won
- Will Peter Navarro leave the Trump administration first?No won
- Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration first?No won
- Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration first?No won
- Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration first?No won
- Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration first?No won
- Will no one leave the Trump administration in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.