Us Politics · resolved market
Will Elon Musk leave the Trump administration first?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x924851243c01005205eb3904e1ffaded894a303747608811c8113a6603ff9fe5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $94,876
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,086
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,876 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb01d…6866backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…f4a4backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 82 | 8.5%7 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 4c | 12,500$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,624$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe48a…67dabacked Yes | 41c | 2,307$937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936.64 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 2c | 999.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 63c | 941.01$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.35 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 34c | 912.71$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.61 | 88 | 20.5%18 W · 70 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 35c | 788.45$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.59 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 61c | 720.32$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.1 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8b…3dc3backed Yes | 32c | 508.91$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked No | 65c | 503.57$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.46 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d8…9c51backed Yes | 5c | 500$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes | 3c | 499.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 98 | 10.2%10 W · 88 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 62c | 432.14$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.33 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb169…b67abacked Yes | 35c | 400$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed Yes | 31c | 324.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7a…b5f7backed Yes | 38c | 314.89$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.76 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -42%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaad…a862backed Yes | 37c | 298.42$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.77 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48d3…30babacked No | 62c | 257.47$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.26 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 249$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes | 33c | 244.78$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.78 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…0446backed Yes | 42c | 240.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x395d…cca7backed Yes | 38c | 229.73$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 205.68$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.92 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0a…6fc4backed No | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 194.28$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.32 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked No | 67c | 194$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.86 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 62c | 126$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.88 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f19…3aedbacked Yes | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ce…54a5backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 62c | 88.81$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93c6…20f1backed Yes | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 37c | 75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 134 | 55.2%74 W · 60 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff0…f9e0backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 110 | 31.8%35 W · 75 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 38c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f67…55bfbacked Yes | 44c | 44.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 32c | 44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 30c | 38.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8264…845abacked Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa075…7d2bbacked Yes | 66c | 30.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf12f…a7f9backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc20a…d9a3backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…0213backed No | 65c | 28.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk leave the Trump administration first?this page
- Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration first?No won
- Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration first?No won
- Will Linda McMahon leave the Trump administration first?No won
- Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration first?No won
- Will Mike Waltz leave the Trump administration first?Yes won
- Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration first?No won
- Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration first?No won
- Will Peter Navarro leave the Trump administration first?No won
- Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration first?No won
- Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration first?No won
- Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration first?No won
- Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration first?No won
- Will no one leave the Trump administration in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.