TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Peter Navarro leave the Trump administration first?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$39,488
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$34,030

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,488 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes0c11,004$20 inLost-$20380%0 W · 38 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c6,729$11 inLost-$10.572400%0 W · 240 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes0c3,000$12 inLost-$1218033.3%60 W · 120 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab8e…3d89backed Yes10c973.85$100 inLost-$10011646.6%54 W · 62 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes7c800$58 inLost-$57.5819436.1%70 W · 124 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes6c646$42 inLost-$41.9619435.1%68 W · 126 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f77…9d8ebacked Yes7c530.7$38 inLost-$38.14200%0 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x83d6…0489backed Yes9c450.66$40 inLost-$39.972321.7%5 W · 18 L-4.8wins-0.21per pick43cpaid-57.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc032…6668backed Yes9c342.55$30 inLost-$301010%1 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick20cpaid-84%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c313.97$12 inLost-$11.731,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba90…99b9backed Yes9c227.84$20 inLost-$202429.2%7 W · 17 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes11c179.48$20 inLost-$20.0124035.4%85 W · 155 L-12.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-30.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes8c150$12 inLost-$11.9518725.1%47 W · 140 L+10.5wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe48a…67dabacked Yes19c107.02$20 inLost-$20.01616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-56.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.