World Politics · resolved market
Will Trump lower automobile tariffs on Canada/Mexico by next Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf0a984d921100c4c9bc9b84075d9b3179cdb77f33f9ada3791d425e9eac69da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,204
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,437
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,204 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf01d…e7eebacked No | 1c | 6,545$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.57 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 3c | 6,187$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.71 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked No | 2c | 2,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 4c | 1,701$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.66 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -5.7wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 4c | 1,600$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked No | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…27eabacked No | 5c | 1,184$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49fc…66c2backed No | 2c | 1,138$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa289…d95cbacked No | 9c | 1,126$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a79…5adebacked No | 2c | 1,087$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xded0…4319backed No | 5c | 1,036$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…8f27backed No | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +87%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 2c | 1,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | -18.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa40c…8192backed No | 3c | 1,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0004…ef4cbacked No | 6c | 1,000$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked No | 4c | 714$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 492.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3233…030bbacked No | 5c | 405.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x092f…18acbacked No | 4c | 374$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -78%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x297f…6e57backed No | 9c | 253.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 9c | 120.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 101 | 31.7%32 W · 69 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.