F1 · resolved market
Will Mercedes have the highest Constructor score at the Australian GP?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40cdbbf7cde1288d5e774fbeb0797806840c79d0dd207c1a4ec2bc5310261c9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,899
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,555
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,899 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 6c | 1,918$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.06 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ed…14f2backed Yes | 6c | 1,819$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 5cpaid | +737.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 4c | 1,451$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.15 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes | 3c | 1,307$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x852e…95d9backed Yes | 2c | 988.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…e7eebacked Yes | 3c | 600$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a8…1b38backed Yes | 4c | 506.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904f…50c6backed Yes | 35c | 500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 159 | 22%35 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f99…64d5backed Yes | 4c | 377$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 40c | 222$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.8 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd878…74efbacked No | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e2…8f10backed Yes | 40c | 126.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95f6…d035backed Yes | 30c | 90$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f70…6215backed Yes | 40c | 50.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45a1…d31fbacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9597…50babacked Yes | 71c | 37.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mercedes have the highest Constructor score at the Australian GP?this page
- Will Ferrari have the highest Constructor score at the Australian GP?No won
- Will McLaren have the highest Constructor score at the Australian GP?Yes won
- Will Red Bull have the highest Constructor score at the Australian GP?No won
- Will another team have the highest Constructor score at the Australian GP?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.