TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Epstein files released this week?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$41,968
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$35,844

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,968 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x73cb…02ccbacked Yes10c5,496$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x843a…8070backed Yes10c3,563$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.584040%16 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf652…56afbacked Yes16c2,571$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.36714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.36per pick50cpaid-76.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6f7a…c585backed Yes20c1,715$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.7611918.5%22 W · 97 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes4c1,509$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.549810.2%10 W · 88 L-5.9wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-60.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xedf0…0245backed Yes16c1,200$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1983438.2%13 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-39.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes19c1,049$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.6613525.9%35 W · 100 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-37.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes8c1,008$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.13859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d57…bd62backed Yes18c999.04$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.043435.3%12 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ab3…ad68backed Yes21c987.87$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2799…ae03backed Yes20c895.79$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.96214.8%1 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick15cpaid-81.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x61f3…ada9backed Yes19c738.27$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.2730%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x498c…752bbacked Yes25c624.29$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3143…81b1backed No78c599.99$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.475756.1%32 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed Yes24c556.48$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.483315.2%5 W · 28 L-7.2wins-0.22per pick37cpaid-67.4%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes23c528.76$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.9818033.3%60 W · 120 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed Yes24c523.25$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.126221%13 W · 49 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd89b…7945backed Yes21c499.96$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.994231%13 W · 29 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick36cpaid+6.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b62…53bcbacked No79c400$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed Yes19c369$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.4215238.8%59 W · 93 L-13.5wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-27.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xf01d…e7eebacked Yes17c355.82$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.491010%1 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick21cpaid-32.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b14…49a4backed Yes19c320$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.4156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick13cpaid-74.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No76c299.99$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7215646.8%73 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x207a…6fecbacked No80c292.65$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.862934.5%10 W · 19 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-25.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcaa8…6c7cbacked No76c280$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.195444.4%24 W · 30 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed Yes27c277$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.7528636.7%105 W · 181 L-10.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c59…4a6abacked Yes20c261$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc629…aa40backed No78c250$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-22.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9418…4f2abacked Yes18c227.16$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406031.7%19 W · 41 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes24c222.61$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.3241238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No75c221.3$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.3220446.6%95 W · 109 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16a8…30e5backed Yes20c211.51$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa386…a3aebacked Yes23c190.53$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443225%8 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa88f…7e59backed No79c182.32$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.29560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-21%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fcc…5b93backed Yes29c173.45$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-30.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes20c148.57$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7123149.4%114 W · 117 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b84…71eabacked No80c147$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1bf…1800backed No73c136.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.991266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+71.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked No77c136.1$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.434434.1%15 W · 29 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8f0…0446backed No77c129.11$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.113531.4%11 W · 24 L-5.2wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-31.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe3a4…543fbacked Yes24c120$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-57%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb676…492cbacked No80c114$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa40b…fcc0backed Yes15c109.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfabf…7ef7backed Yes23c106.64$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa47e…5d1ebacked Yes19c105.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2316643.4%72 W · 94 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0103…067bbacked Yes22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223737.8%14 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe085…5474backed No72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282850%14 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+23.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe261…a8b6backed No78c100$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48d3…30babacked No77c87.22$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.067943%34 W · 45 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-24.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x856e…8fc7backed No73c86.44$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.54633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-53.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7183…2589backed Yes24c79.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-36.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef17…6583backed No78c77.19$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.191735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-54.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xccce…2c7cbacked Yes18c70$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick36cpaid-51.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf572…09f2backed Yes23c65.22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156119.7%12 W · 49 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf612…5700backed Yes23c60.98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.826251.6%32 W · 30 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x50b2…c94abacked No78c60$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.212736.2%46 W · 81 L-17.3wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-34.7%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x2564…1b02backed No79c60$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.61330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-34.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc66…80cfbacked No79c58.03$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcda5…56a7backed No77c51.95$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.95450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes27c51$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7732626.4%86 W · 240 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8182…7cf5backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid+13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d19…61e2backed No76c49.66$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.92250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4171…4f11backed Yes22c44.76$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe08d…d5d4backed Yes26c44.65$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.411450%7 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+53.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c82…377fbacked No79c43.35$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.3250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick79cpaid-36.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7061…6096backed Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf386…1158backed No77c38.73$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.733171%22 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick69cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce85…d2a2backed No79c36.8$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4d9…8857backed No77c34.52$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.94250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9948…5935backed No79c33.44$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa551…5f98backed Yes35c32$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa14d…48bcbacked No73c30.51$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.241030%3 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-44.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb498…5fbdbacked Yes46c28$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.88250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x891b…b1bbbacked No79c27.73$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8faa…1126backed No73c27.4$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90c3…7c98backed No74c27.15$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefdc…dec8backed No79c27.13$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb26…adcfbacked No65c27$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ea4…30efbacked No79c26.85$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfde7…ec9bbacked No78c25.49$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.49887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick71cpaid+24.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xce72…dca0backed No79c25.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1cd…13fabacked No65c25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87ba…9fd1backed No76c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64656.5%26 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29fc…06b0backed No77c22.5$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.171361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+29.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x183c…4d97backed No54c22$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.122100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+93.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc36f…adb0backed No79c21.52$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ace…ed20backed No74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.27475.7%56 W · 18 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick68cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6237…2871backed No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2dd1…0310backed No72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.65100%5 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+58.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe7f5…987ebacked No77c19.48$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x023b…5ab1backed No78c19.16$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5e8…4cbebacked No79c18.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.99250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3ce…7bb1backed No79c17.65$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb01…8b08backed No69c15.94$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.94366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe74e…3831backed No73c15.07$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e0…7bf6backed No73c15.07$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.07366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick35cpaid+135%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.