College Football · resolved market
Will Arch Manning win the Heisman Trophy?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cc94c4859e1239765188f50bdb79f9159cedb231017c1d3c3157cb2b5f40892
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,639
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,048
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,639 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x471b…b18fbacked Yes | 6c | 5,798$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.49 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,458$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 224 | 4%9 W · 215 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x063b…0711backed Yes | 15c | 2,500$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f78…37b3backed Yes | 3c | 1,999$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…2224backed Yes | 29c | 659.23$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf020…a576backed Yes | 6c | 500$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…e696backed No | 62c | 399.99$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc26…6cd5backed Yes | 9c | 225.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -63%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 76c | 155$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e75…ab84backed Yes | 15c | 136.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63f3…c262backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47bb…81bcbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x132c…5d2fbacked Yes | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4456…7d3ebacked Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd95…cb4cbacked Yes | 53c | 76.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 23c | 58.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.35 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +1,835.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdea7…e7a8backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Arch Manning win the Heisman Trophy?this page
- Will Austin Simmons win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Cade Klubnik win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Carson Beck win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will DJ Lagway win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Dante Moore win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Diego Pavia win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Dylan Raiola win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Fernando Mendoza win the Heisman Trophy?Yes won
- Will Garrett Nussemeier win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Gunner Stockton win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Jeremiah Smith win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Jeremiyah Love win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will John Mateer win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Julian Sayin win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will LaNorris Sellers win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Marcel Reed win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Ryan Williams win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Ty Simpson win the Heisman Trophy?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.