College Football · resolved market
Will Marcel Reed win the Heisman Trophy?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e9144ba1de6896da3b296e8e32962164cc2cf3a715ab5b39e5ab74a22c6217f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,316
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,346
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,316 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e33…1482backed Yes | 9c | 14,405$1,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,321.87 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef3…c555backed Yes | 11c | 4,500$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,126$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 224 | 4%9 W · 215 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 4c | 1,907$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.37 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 11c | 1,500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.48 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…d00fbacked Yes | 10c | 1,081$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.95 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…e8debacked Yes | 12c | 490.45$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 7c | 390.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…be9abacked Yes | 17c | 296.57$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Yes | 12c | 280.51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 9c | 216.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed Yes | 6c | 212$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc7…e411backed No | 78c | 184.44$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4a…850fbacked Yes | 11c | 177.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…7518backed Yes | 6c | 177.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 7c | 161$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +9.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 128$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56dc…f02bbacked No | 51c | 43.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb225…d86bbacked Yes | 49c | 43.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +64%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Marcel Reed win the Heisman Trophy?this page
- Will Arch Manning win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Austin Simmons win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Cade Klubnik win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Carson Beck win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will DJ Lagway win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Dante Moore win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Diego Pavia win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Dylan Raiola win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Fernando Mendoza win the Heisman Trophy?Yes won
- Will Garrett Nussemeier win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Gunner Stockton win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Jeremiah Smith win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Jeremiyah Love win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will John Mateer win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Julian Sayin win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will LaNorris Sellers win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Ryan Williams win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Ty Simpson win the Heisman Trophy?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.