College Football · resolved market
Will Diego Pavia win the Heisman Trophy?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a402835e0912412533a105a2482886c3729865221196a3803aeb2c6dac52f35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $159,594
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $157,807
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $159,594 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 4c | 27,153$1,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,016.14 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 17c | 17,285$2,931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,931.27 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed No | 72c | 12,261$8,848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,413.51 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2f…3794backed Yes | 2c | 5,727$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d8…65adbacked Yes | 2c | 5,205$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63bf…e319backed Yes | 6c | 5,000$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 33cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6337…1ebbbacked Yes | 12c | 4,786$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 19c | 3,756$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.01 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +129.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 2c | 2,995$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.03 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +9.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Yes | 1c | 2,507$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 23c | 2,206$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.65 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 6c | 2,000$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 1,991$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…2467backed Yes | 7c | 1,765$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.06 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 9c | 1,720$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fef…0cc5backed Yes | 24c | 1,597$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 1,390$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.49 | 224 | 4%9 W · 215 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc03…1cbcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x264a…b6a6backed No | 59c | 1,160$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f94…969bbacked Yes | 44c | 1,115$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…c9dbbacked Yes | 2c | 1,013$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 26c | 934.85$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.85 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcff…a5d5backed Yes | 6c | 806.25$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.71 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 763.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 24c | 723.87$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.3 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 4c | 686.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6653…7a41backed Yes | 9c | 673.57$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5d…185dbacked No | 76c | 646$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.33 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b34…cca8backed No | 78c | 636.68$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…8747backed Yes | 8c | 592.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd121…99debacked Yes | 9c | 570.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaabc…a190backed Yes | 7c | 541.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 517.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2af9…2b9dbacked Yes | 10c | 508.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 5c | 500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2f…e60cbacked Yes | 2c | 484.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 76c | 475.46$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.62 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a7…13b5backed Yes | 7c | 450.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -47%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87d5…fe30backed Yes | 5c | 378.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 4c | 361.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd71…d127backed Yes | 5c | 345.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeac8…bca4backed Yes | 5c | 332.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb011…2d13backed Yes | 31c | 300$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…ebc7backed Yes | 23c | 262.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7d…a315backed No | 80c | 239$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 77c | 226.98$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.62 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 8c | 224.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…4e46backed Yes | 28c | 214.82$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.53 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes | 8c | 199.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 71c | 165.71$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.28 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 10c | 150.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.59per pick | 8cpaid | +517.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed No | 80c | 147.24$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.56 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +7.8wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6e…88adbacked No | 77c | 136$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9386…cfe5backed No | 75c | 134$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -32%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…4166backed Yes | 30c | 129$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d3…53dcbacked Yes | 20c | 110.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea28…3a0bbacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54af…415ebacked Yes | 23c | 97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd93a…0c67backed Yes | 28c | 90.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4984…69d2backed Yes | 21c | 88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…a23bbacked No | 79c | 88$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4c…be9fbacked Yes | 20c | 73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Yes | 26c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d91…58f8backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0d…c5dcbacked Yes | 53c | 38.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x442d…523ebacked Yes | 27c | 38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5a…f00bbacked Yes | 31c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5a…b293backed Yes | 46c | 33.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcde4…ed07backed No | 80c | 27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c7…428abacked No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7965…d121backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74db…144ebacked No | 80c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93e9…06cbbacked No | 80c | 15.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4703…764fbacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9046…54a9backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Diego Pavia win the Heisman Trophy?this page
- Will Arch Manning win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Austin Simmons win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Cade Klubnik win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Carson Beck win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will DJ Lagway win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Dante Moore win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Dylan Raiola win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Fernando Mendoza win the Heisman Trophy?Yes won
- Will Garrett Nussemeier win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Gunner Stockton win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Jeremiah Smith win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Jeremiyah Love win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will John Mateer win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Julian Sayin win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will LaNorris Sellers win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Marcel Reed win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Ryan Williams win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Ty Simpson win the Heisman Trophy?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.