College Football · resolved market
Will Carson Beck win the Heisman Trophy?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae50f062fac9db43f2482a23132a688926c16bba9b418ce0e7862dd361752914
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,466
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,265
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,466 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56dc…f02bbacked Yes | 5c | 2,100$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 8c | 1,673$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.81 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -8.5wins | -0.35per pick | 52cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…5536backed Yes | 10c | 1,091$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f02…7104backed Yes | 24c | 825.71$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 77c | 652.03$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.2 | 267 | 50.9%136 W · 131 L | +21.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…8a6ebacked Yes | 9c | 562.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad7…86bfbacked Yes | 18c | 561.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…289abacked Yes | 9c | 560$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…4665backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +526.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 10c | 446$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 10c | 333$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…be9abacked Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ba…8497backed Yes | 9c | 247.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed No | 72c | 205.71$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59a6…f3cdbacked Yes | 10c | 190$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed No | 75c | 138.52$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd121…99debacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Carson Beck win the Heisman Trophy?this page
- Will Arch Manning win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Austin Simmons win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Cade Klubnik win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will DJ Lagway win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Dante Moore win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Diego Pavia win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Dylan Raiola win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Fernando Mendoza win the Heisman Trophy?Yes won
- Will Garrett Nussemeier win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Gunner Stockton win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Jeremiah Smith win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Jeremiyah Love win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will John Mateer win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Julian Sayin win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will LaNorris Sellers win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Marcel Reed win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Ryan Williams win the Heisman Trophy?No won
- Will Ty Simpson win the Heisman Trophy?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.