Us Midterms · resolved market
Will a Democrat win Michigan US Senate Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x673bc2e3150161fc6dda2080d0a1c2ff095832b4b914d3d903b9a548666e6d38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $394,971
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $431,444
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $394,971 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 31c | 12,659$3,962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,961.93 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 70c | 12,099$8,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,597.18 | 81 | 33.3%27 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes | 72c | 11,031$7,987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,044.66 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x000d…758ebacked Yes | 77c | 10,893$8,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,514.32 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8633…a08dbacked Yes | 75c | 10,000$7,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,510.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc96a…396abacked Yes | 76c | 10,000$7,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,400 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 67cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 68c | 9,872$6,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,111.49 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fc…0ec1backed Yes | 67c | 9,700$6,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,201 | 18 | 88.9%16 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x063b…0711backed No | 15c | 7,000$1,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,031 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 72c | 6,346$4,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,765.34 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff92…f9b5backed Yes | 77c | 4,998$3,855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,142.62 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed Yes | 77c | 4,770$3,677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,092.56 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc64d…a1c9backed No | 32c | 4,308$1,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,386.52 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed No | 21c | 3,979$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.52 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Yes | 76c | 3,684$2,783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901.13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2158…fe65backed Yes | 74c | 3,521$2,591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930.55 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed Yes | 46c | 3,397$1,574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,823.57 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 73c | 3,341$2,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$909.95 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -58%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 76c | 3,287$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.51 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf7…17b5backed Yes | 79c | 3,141$2,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…8eb9backed Yes | 11c | 2,731$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,440.92 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc910…5e8dbacked No | 29c | 2,625$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$771.18 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…325cbacked Yes | 79c | 2,521$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -37%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42cb…8412backed Yes | 74c | 2,499$1,843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 25c | 2,484$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,863.92 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +49%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 77c | 2,400$1,848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…ded5backed No | 23c | 2,100$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e38…5d7fbacked No | 11c | 1,786$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.7 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 6c | 1,733$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.35 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…a2cabacked Yes | 71c | 1,690$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.17 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42df…48a3backed Yes | 75c | 1,618$1,208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 19c | 1,566$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,274.92 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 73c | 1,526$1,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.3 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb236…1d5dbacked No | 25c | 1,520$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.04 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x969d…2de2backed Yes | 68c | 1,471$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.59 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8b…0159backed No | 23c | 1,460$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.7 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -71%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…6318backed Yes | 78c | 1,420$1,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…7c2abacked Yes | 80c | 1,400$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1a…efe7backed Yes | 78c | 1,265$985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.3 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Yes | 73c | 1,254$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.73 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc9…4534backed Yes | 77c | 1,217$933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.55 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x708f…f236backed No | 30c | 1,195$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.38 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed Yes | 30c | 1,100$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2e…75eabacked Yes | 51c | 1,077$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.8 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd71…d127backed No | 27c | 1,032$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.64 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +5.4wins | +0.45per pick | 39cpaid | +227.2%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…fca2backed Yes | 61c | 1,029$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +64%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…a2cdbacked Yes | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa221…9139backed Yes | 74c | 1,000$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed Yes | 68c | 1,000$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x240e…e8aabacked Yes | 66c | 1,000$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed Yes | 79c | 1,000$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb620…dd7abacked No | 20c | 999.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked No | 34c | 962.5$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.25 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…8839backed No | 33c | 951.87$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d7…3d6bbacked Yes | 77c | 900$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 77c | 777$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.71 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce1…5f46backed Yes | 68c | 764.71$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.71 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60eb…4949backed No | 21c | 736$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.88 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 64c | 689.21$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.12 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +103%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1949…515ebacked Yes | 74c | 666$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.16 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked No | 31c | 617.21$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.79 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -56%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc395…5c8cbacked No | 22c | 600$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc79a…d9bbbacked No | 20c | 599$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 4c | 580.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x63fc…7b05backed Yes | 78c | 512.82$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…87cfbacked Yes | 71c | 500$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83e2…ce08backed Yes | 55c | 499.25$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc4…e59dbacked No | 34c | 481.57$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…d81fbacked Yes | 69c | 433.01$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.01 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa68…94a7backed No | 33c | 400$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbadb…766fbacked Yes | 78c | 400$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x980f…5b55backed No | 25c | 400$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.91 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb138…0acebacked Yes | 70c | 400$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7120…201bbacked Yes | 73c | 400$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef8…1d13backed Yes | 78c | 384.62$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.62 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52e9…67c3backed Yes | 74c | 351.35$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.35 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 28c | 347$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.84 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98e7…0a64backed No | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6704…baa4backed Yes | 68c | 307.63$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.63 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 72cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked No | 22c | 258$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.76 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c60…67c1backed Yes | 77c | 250$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…007dbacked No | 26c | 222$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd0…4c12backed Yes | 73c | 206$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.62 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x996b…1e9cbacked No | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf1…d523backed Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed No | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62d2…9eb7backed No | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac3…6e1dbacked Yes | 67c | 199.56$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…73a1backed Yes | 77c | 180$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 43cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed Yes | 80c | 176.78$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed Yes | 68c | 150.46$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.15 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…ebc2backed Yes | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…eec9backed Yes | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x631b…ff60backed Yes | 73c | 130.41$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x188d…a981backed Yes | 74c | 112.47$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…7d45backed Yes | 74c | 110.93$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…cc33backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4192…7f00backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf393…7fc8backed Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2c…e459backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a Democrat win Michigan US Senate Election?this page
- Will a Republican win Michigan US Senate Election?No won
- Will a candidate from another party win US Michigan Senate Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.