Token Launches · resolved market
Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $500m and $1b on Feb 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0009520c0341163e2c410fb9d08380485fdb137b4101031a18ed2e8b2755f33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,091
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,424
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,091 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 0c | 12,538$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 0c | 11,500$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed Yes | 20c | 5,639$1,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,104.95 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 3c | 4,689$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.78 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 8c | 2,049$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.8 | 57 | 5.3%3 W · 54 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3be6…90f3backed Yes | 2c | 1,834$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f42…2af2backed Yes | 2c | 1,800$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,407$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.55 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 2c | 1,200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +11.1wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa046…00c7backed Yes | 11c | 1,200$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7dd…3696backed Yes | 3c | 1,080$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 18c | 1,056$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.64 | 104 | 62.5%65 W · 39 L | +13.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2432…ae39backed Yes | 10c | 1,022$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc497…767abacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x404a…575dbacked Yes | 2c | 854.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11a1…7afebacked Yes | 6c | 748.42$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x206a…24a5backed Yes | 3c | 732.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bca…a74cbacked Yes | 2c | 731.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 3c | 621.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdba…3e7abacked Yes | 4c | 605$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 3c | 499.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9385…3c4fbacked Yes | 4c | 462.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fe…1779backed Yes | 4c | 323.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef4…7ffbbacked Yes | 12c | 270.58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d5…fbe0backed Yes | 9c | 220.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefbb…65e8backed Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed Yes | 15c | 128.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdb…5759backed Yes | 16c | 81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefc3…1caebacked Yes | 19c | 79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca6…4cddbacked Yes | 16c | 77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $500m and $1b on Feb 21?this page
- Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $1.5b and $2b on Feb 21?No won
- Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $1b and $1.5b on Feb 21?No won
- Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $2.5b and $3b on Feb 21?No won
- Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $2b and $2.5b on Feb 21?No won
- Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $3.5b and $4b on Feb 21?No won
- Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $3b and $3.5b on Feb 21?No won
- Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $4.5b and $5b on Feb 21?No won
- Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $4b and $4.5b on Feb 21?No won
- Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be less than $500m on Feb 21?Yes won
- Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be more than $5b on Feb 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.