Token Launches · resolved market
Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be less than $500m on Feb 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbcec35df879043d808cf92cac54f859297f0c6c227bc67c4fc69e79b632f76e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $345,125
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $364,112
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $345,125 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2e55…e3b9backed No | 40c | 115,000$46,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…4115backed Yes | 60c | 115,000$69,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46,000 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked No | 0c | 7,838$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed No | 25c | 5,928$1,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,477.96 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 3c | 5,400$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.81 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 10c | 4,914$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.57 | 57 | 5.3%3 W · 54 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa920…be41backed No | 4c | 3,682$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.83 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 11c | 3,511$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 1c | 3,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7304…0379backed Yes | 79c | 2,628$2,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6153…b123backed No | 8c | 2,407$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 11c | 1,575$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.37 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09d7…2dbfbacked No | 2c | 1,300$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 79c | 1,102$873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.41 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaea3…ff32backed No | 1c | 1,095$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e6…8478backed No | 5c | 1,065$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ac…c2aabacked No | 2c | 1,019$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…b327backed No | 2c | 961.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 1c | 900$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34ac…6e16backed No | 18c | 734.62$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa068…6b89backed No | 4c | 600$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 80c | 500.24$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.12 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +6.7wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0e91…ea34backed Yes | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd668…7c1ebacked No | 6c | 481.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c9…927bbacked No | 7c | 448.84$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 21c | 409.57$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.48 | 104 | 62.5%65 W · 39 L | +13.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 26c | 385.54$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.94 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 25c | 341.72$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.62 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bca…a74cbacked No | 4c | 270$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed Yes | 77c | 240$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.26 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b72…7a4dbacked No | 14c | 199.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25f8…3428backed No | 26c | 195.53$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x115d…2aa7backed No | 26c | 160$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1b…6d07backed No | 7c | 149.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed No | 10c | 147.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 8c | 133.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a08…2523backed No | 29c | 120.31$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 14c | 120$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe46d…ec50backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00b1…3e18backed Yes | 65c | 95.54$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 19c | 89.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c47…bcb4backed Yes | 74c | 58.81$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e45…fc0cbacked Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be less than $500m on Feb 21?this page
- Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $1.5b and $2b on Feb 21?No won
- Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $1b and $1.5b on Feb 21?No won
- Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $2.5b and $3b on Feb 21?No won
- Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $2b and $2.5b on Feb 21?No won
- Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $3.5b and $4b on Feb 21?No won
- Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $3b and $3.5b on Feb 21?No won
- Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $4.5b and $5b on Feb 21?No won
- Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $4b and $4.5b on Feb 21?No won
- Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $500m and $1b on Feb 21?No won
- Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be more than $5b on Feb 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.