Middle East · resolved market
Netanyahu out by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb977da314aec0e32081a1a74823f9ebecc726c2899fbfaa5c113b2932ad0e8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $732,532
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $655,045
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $732,532 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x011d…3d2fbacked Yes | 2c | 349,581$5,529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,529.11 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.19per pick | 9cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe410…de46backed Yes | 4c | 85,334$3,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,140.35 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 4c | 28,404$1,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,146.97 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes | 1c | 19,009$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.1 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a20…c0bcbacked Yes | 9c | 11,005$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010.18 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0912…24cbbacked Yes | 11c | 6,661$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb855…e3c0backed Yes | 19c | 4,483$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 3,796$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.71 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c1…0101backed Yes | 6c | 2,500$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed Yes | 4c | 2,176$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.54 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x111a…2bb4backed Yes | 7c | 2,110$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.91 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x518b…c470backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a0…d247backed Yes | 9c | 1,771$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.87 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9790…85d7backed Yes | 2c | 1,574$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.27per pick | 33cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…63a3backed Yes | 3c | 1,471$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 3c | 1,413$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 4c | 1,387$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.19 | 92 | 34.8%32 W · 60 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 7c | 1,265$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.12 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…12e6backed Yes | 3c | 1,205$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +110.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25ab…3f33backed Yes | 5c | 1,176$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 3c | 1,122$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x139d…fe64backed Yes | 3c | 1,058$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 66 | 15.2%10 W · 56 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88cb…9ed1backed Yes | 3c | 1,020$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcec…4ea6backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf01…492abacked Yes | 7c | 999.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.91 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 2c | 999.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25d8…a71fbacked Yes | 4c | 999.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7edc…29cbbacked Yes | 10c | 999.72$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.98 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 8c | 970$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.6 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 78c | 947.81$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.52 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcab1…b2b1backed Yes | 12c | 879.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.41 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -36%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 15c | 835.64$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.35 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -87%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…e17ebacked Yes | 4c | 835.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 2c | 777.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1364…50febacked No | 72c | 608.7$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…5863backed Yes | 2c | 539.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +117.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7414…ef1abacked Yes | 2c | 500.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86f3…833ebacked Yes | 4c | 493.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1cc…e644backed Yes | 10c | 459.04$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 41c | 440.31$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.74 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 16c | 424.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.52 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf24f…15b2backed Yes | 7c | 414.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 19c | 387.37$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.79 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -6.2wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x174e…ec1ebacked Yes | 10c | 380.18$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9f…d2b9backed No | 79c | 350$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1c…33c1backed Yes | 3c | 343.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c3aabacked No | 5c | 328.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.14 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +695.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…83efbacked Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 54 | 22.2%12 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55c4…c630backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 10c | 299.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 58 | 1.7%1 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -93.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf37b…da7abacked No | 62c | 240.31$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.31 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c3…ab95backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5240…54b7backed Yes | 9c | 214.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec9…be0dbacked Yes | 8c | 204.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2600…2829backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…061dbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd0…4c12backed Yes | 17c | 177$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef4a…021fbacked Yes | 11c | 176.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64e2…0f38backed Yes | 7c | 173.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92fb…6e8bbacked Yes | 6c | 156.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe677…b3fbbacked Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…f82ebacked Yes | 18c | 151.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f1…6600backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2e…75eabacked Yes | 13c | 147.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 8c | 130.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes | 14c | 120$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd57…e785backed Yes | 18c | 116.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x315b…6f77backed Yes | 12c | 116.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd757…2207backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce10…51d4backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd64a…01a6backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb0…32c6backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ba…44f1backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46cc…a51fbacked Yes | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8daf…d321backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 25cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b87…2eb9backed No | 75c | 13.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.