Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump eliminate H-1B visa in first 100 days?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6f269b913e720ff1a566509a9a6f42152b67ab3a8884692ffa573afc56673ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,997
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $90,344
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,997 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 4c | 6,200$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf865…d8b0backed Yes | 4c | 5,615$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.49 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 3c | 3,664$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.26 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96a4…4d01backed Yes | 6c | 2,963$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.53 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 5c | 1,885$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.25 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 6c | 1,444$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.71 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,356$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4425…919ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,040$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed Yes | 50c | 1,040$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.81 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 5c | 999.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5b…85a5backed Yes | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 50c | 712.61$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.93 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 2c | 660.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed Yes | 7c | 550$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 3c | 404.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 148 | 19.6%29 W · 119 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 8c | 248.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95e6…1d2bbacked Yes | 26c | 245$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 13c | 206.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a68…835abacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x168b…0450backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed No | 50c | 184.59$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.83 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 9c | 173.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 148 | 43.2%64 W · 84 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…8f17backed No | 71c | 45.3$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50b7…0df1backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed6…58b9backed No | 80c | 16.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 47 | 74.5%35 W · 12 L | +7.4wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x62f8…7737backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +8.5wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.