AI · resolved market
Will Elon respond to OpenAI today?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9956afc856de340e85dbea6094e37457cf32e9067eb8a52eecfe7dc7fddd65f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $168,769
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $188,961
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $168,769 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes | 1c | 50,051$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 2c | 16,266$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.5 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e2…5009backed No | 74c | 11,174$8,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,908.85 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97d2…e372backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 26c | 6,737$1,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,749.85 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 3c | 4,117$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.73 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…8441backed Yes | 26c | 3,449$897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$896.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 1c | 3,345$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 16c | 2,445$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 5c | 1,353$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 21c | 1,039$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.24 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes | 9c | 971.6$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.14 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac9…cf1abacked No | 57c | 950.71$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.22 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes | 36c | 859.27$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.32 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x247d…7d27backed Yes | 9c | 757.74$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a67…dc7cbacked Yes | 49c | 535$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 45c | 513.42$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.49 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfde3…c59bbacked Yes | 3c | 486.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 5c | 436$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb3…2b1fbacked No | 60c | 416.67$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked No | 51c | 409$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.41 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 33c | 399.57$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.95 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fed…3068backed Yes | 8c | 387$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Yes | 45c | 357.31$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 26c | 332.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacd9…3d87backed Yes | 5c | 313.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd013…94eabacked No | 62c | 274.35$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 250$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 24c | 240.67$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.43 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28c9…5769backed Yes | 42c | 239.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda94…27e8backed Yes | 8c | 237.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7dc…0955backed Yes | 43c | 233.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 58c | 229.99$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.6 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf162…ba35backed Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed7c…da06backed Yes | 21c | 204.84$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.02 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e0…f11cbacked Yes | 6c | 179.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8053…810cbacked Yes | 15c | 160.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0b…2341backed No | 70c | 143.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf0…0245backed Yes | 9c | 139.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa27b…5d5cbacked No | 73c | 134.9$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e2…25f7backed No | 72c | 129.29$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe438…9471backed No | 79c | 127.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ba…6cbdbacked No | 72c | 124.43$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d4…a164backed No | 78c | 112.59$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1694…8a14backed No | 56c | 100.64$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5e…578fbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…71aebacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x739e…00fcbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c8…c77fbacked Yes | 19c | 90$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc12a…429abacked No | 59c | 85.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x199d…589abacked Yes | 24c | 83.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c03…f77fbacked No | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadd3…263fbacked No | 70c | 54.67$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79a9…1e1dbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9503…ce42backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf892…23a5backed No | 60c | 40.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b3…0cd4backed Yes | 28c | 39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a23…1b4cbacked Yes | 32c | 38.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358e…b0ccbacked No | 63c | 34.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa571…28f3backed Yes | 30c | 34.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb7…73cbbacked No | 80c | 32.73$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 34cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…b646backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5e…639bbacked No | 71c | 28.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…ba10backed No | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fd…95aebacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebf…83cebacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…f74ebacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x285b…40cfbacked No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.