Ukraine · resolved market
Will Putin go on Lex Fridman before March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac4afabe8c97412d4a2e32a525b60daf2c7a72eb516f7c2c3448b17106099f30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,019
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $100,768
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,019 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe877…bb43backed Yes | 15c | 3,239$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ca…c6d4backed Yes | 2c | 2,332$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e7…fc15backed Yes | 10c | 2,115$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.69 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…9862backed Yes | 2c | 1,980$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Yes | 7c | 1,398$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.43per pick | 37cpaid | +241.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…9d99backed Yes | 14c | 1,149$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4e…3cc1backed Yes | 3c | 1,122$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 10c | 1,049$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…a3c3backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.7 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda19…241fbacked Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7295…e951backed Yes | 2c | 853.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24d2…92c5backed Yes | 14c | 851.02$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.44 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc4…768fbacked Yes | 12c | 800$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd378…15c5backed Yes | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a08…2523backed Yes | 13c | 615.38$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x408f…f885backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -38%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26a6…3b25backed Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…6654backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf85b…5663backed Yes | 18c | 499.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92c1…adc5backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -90.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa80e…dfefbacked Yes | 13c | 394.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x543e…8253backed Yes | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a1…0770backed Yes | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…39cfbacked Yes | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.32per pick | 55cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1246…6192backed Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3495…b2a6backed Yes | 8c | 300$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x937e…1f1bbacked Yes | 26c | 248.53$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 244.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 56 | 5.4%3 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3178…277dbacked Yes | 13c | 230.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes | 5c | 208$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ff…7d04backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -75%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf1…e6b4backed Yes | 13c | 192.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 12c | 191.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 6c | 176$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61ea…d0c1backed Yes | 14c | 176$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a2…910abacked Yes | 9c | 171.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb285…40b8backed Yes | 11c | 138.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf648…0edcbacked No | 69c | 126.95$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea0…9928backed No | 65c | 123.08$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3828…f7d2backed Yes | 12c | 120.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…82acbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf88…bc20backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…2f18backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63cc…c1b8backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 20c | 92.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf04…d45bbacked Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe51e…1a85backed Yes | 15c | 70.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb97d…b68cbacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed No | 63c | 16.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.