Token Launches · resolved market
Trump post about a memecoin before election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ef59523ee90ac0af9454ae2bed6c866522526ad1360c8d46fb0df7e760eb17e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $113,914
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $118,163
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $113,914 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaea5…9c64backed Yes | 13c | 7,127$932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$931.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…bd72backed Yes | 11c | 5,641$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…e414backed Yes | 14c | 3,505$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.66 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9a…1acdbacked Yes | 2c | 3,210$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 4c | 3,000$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed Yes | 10c | 1,770$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.96 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…8839backed Yes | 12c | 1,750$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe96…9ec7backed Yes | 15c | 1,503$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdab8…f13abacked Yes | 10c | 1,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f13…d602backed Yes | 15c | 1,276$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x282b…77d3backed Yes | 13c | 1,107$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed Yes | 16c | 1,054$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.34 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 13c | 1,019$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.58 | 84 | 8.3%7 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f3…1043backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011d…fcf6backed Yes | 16c | 1,000$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b50…be35backed Yes | 25c | 850$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc620…2da3backed Yes | 15c | 850$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2606…aaddbacked Yes | 16c | 679.39$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a79…f197backed Yes | 10c | 577.01$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x521b…db60backed No | 75c | 568.44$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 500.81$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.67 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c6…be32backed Yes | 10c | 480$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 21c | 470.33$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.53 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | -14.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7012…4035backed Yes | 15c | 461.2$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 17c | 416.48$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.89 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 6c | 407.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x509f…8fb7backed Yes | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 362.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7f…5c3cbacked Yes | 15c | 272.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd92…f3b5backed Yes | 15c | 263$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x801b…4055backed Yes | 4c | 255$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaab…d94bbacked Yes | 16c | 246$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50c0…93ebbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3c…bc7abacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7a…7a7cbacked No | 78c | 192.31$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d74…ffb3backed Yes | 10c | 190$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x760b…26ecbacked Yes | 11c | 174.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64e2…0f38backed Yes | 13c | 153.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…45e3backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b6…5f4ebacked Yes | 14c | 140$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c1…b7d6backed Yes | 10c | 140$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0b…82d7backed Yes | 15c | 135.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5f…16d8backed Yes | 13c | 127.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd1…db7dbacked Yes | 11c | 116.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 14c | 114.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c6…b942backed Yes | 13c | 110$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2898…d183backed Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351f…6815backed Yes | 14c | 105$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 14cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 14c | 100.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcd…df2abacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc395…5c8cbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcda1…d9adbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2769…96e3backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf71f…bbe5backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 44 | 4.5%2 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -92.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4875…4adfbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5776…b9c4backed Yes | 14c | 99.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 212 | 40.6%86 W · 126 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6636…5a8ebacked Yes | 14c | 75.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…ce8fbacked No | 77c | 65.81$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057e…1db2backed No | 78c | 18.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.