TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

U.S. military action against Iran before November?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,070,645
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$885,896

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,070,645 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 187 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4d23…8f86backed Yes14c70,340$9,944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,944.242015%3 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-63.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes7c57,984$4,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,316.128220.7%17 W · 65 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5310…a500backed Yes24c52,343$12,795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,795.48560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+20.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2ed…7716backed Yes2c43,717$805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804.8230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1513…5208backed Yes8c35,173$2,734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,734.061926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-57.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6116…f247backed Yes17c28,452$4,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,779.941315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-26%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcbeb…e6e0backed Yes4c27,190$952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951.64742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebc5…61fdbacked Yes15c26,536$4,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,001.971136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick24cpaid-17.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x05c3…3f7fbacked Yes10c19,107$1,971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,971.11468.7%4 W · 42 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-36.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4930…d78dbacked Yes9c18,616$1,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,684.45922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.26per pick49cpaid-69.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe410…de46backed Yes10c17,782$1,785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,784.922615.4%4 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-52.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4987…804bbacked Yes7c17,554$1,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,156.4850%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21d9…0e65backed Yes9c10,611$1,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,003.925121.6%11 W · 40 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x17f0…719ebacked Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201010%1 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-52.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes6c9,545$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.592810.7%3 W · 25 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-49.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes8c8,474$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.1643212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes5c8,238$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.4177636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes3c7,503$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.2126423.9%63 W · 201 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x18b0…2354backed Yes1c7,058$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.85736.8%21 W · 36 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b93…3c34backed Yes4c7,053$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.923116.1%5 W · 26 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick17cpaid+37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x831e…8db9backed Yes9c6,590$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6002737%10 W · 17 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick27cpaid+41%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c54…7e8cbacked Yes4c6,181$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.78229.1%2 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick18cpaid-78.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3efb…244bbacked Yes3c6,166$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid-34.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes9c5,511$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.07600%0 W · 60 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8f6…3cd9backed Yes7c5,359$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.36425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x402a…d1d1backed Yes20c5,066$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+43.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c67…bb39backed Yes9c5,000$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.862152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+115.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93d4…babdbacked Yes7c4,924$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9cc…387abacked Yes16c4,380$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692.586726.9%18 W · 49 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-27.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed Yes19c4,000$766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$765.85143.1%22 W · 29 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-15%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd68…746abacked Yes21c3,980$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$820.465158.8%30 W · 21 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+36.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x75bb…0ac5backed Yes8c3,773$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.971625%4 W · 12 L-2.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-51.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb940…3d84backed Yes8c3,773$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc964…11a7backed Yes4c3,768$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14130%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a6d…3c85backed Yes7c3,645$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.826245.2%28 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacc1…6a67backed Yes12c3,561$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-34.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde97…e43ebacked Yes15c3,000$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.23520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-56.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2705…a12abacked Yes17c3,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick24cpaid-74.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5335…0b0fbacked Yes11c2,951$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.512516%4 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-61.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes4c2,796$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.228427.8%79 W · 205 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-37.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd06f…d4a6backed No77c2,780$2,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632.563633.3%12 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x752e…81c4backed Yes16c2,703$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.686137.7%23 W · 38 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37d2…f302backed Yes8c2,666$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-71.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd10…0d30backed Yes3c2,222$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd04e…77dfbacked Yes16c2,210$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.951723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-20%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd049…5de7backed Yes16c2,014$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.222520%5 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick15cpaid+101.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes18c2,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3605836.2%21 W · 37 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+73%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x906e…a4e0backed Yes6c1,962$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.52633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7add…9765backed Yes6c1,898$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11080%0 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4297…8a8bbacked Yes4c1,855$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.761216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-34.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4f5…1d41backed Yes16c1,777$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.48119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-80.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe4a…ac42backed No69c1,700$1,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5341752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x25f8…c282backed Yes3c1,536$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick19cpaid+181%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x013d…3e88backed Yes13c1,503$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.22725.9%7 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-44.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65fb…92cabacked Yes3c1,500$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.52729.6%8 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick23cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x71cd…912dbacked Yes4c1,300$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544520%9 W · 36 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd221…a44bbacked Yes3c1,299$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455425.9%14 W · 40 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick18cpaid+22.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d4e…4984backed Yes15c1,291$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.51333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick20cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a4c…54e7backed Yes8c1,242$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.5970%0 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbe14…a1aebacked Yes32c1,135$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.360%0 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3fa3…dc66backed Yes7c1,119$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.56166.3%1 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-86.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ec…29cdbacked Yes23c1,096$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2502528%7 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-3.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdbf…c3aabacked No55c1,088$599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.513100%3 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+695.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x518b…c470backed Yes8c1,071$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.5440%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4df…7f8ebacked Yes12c1,046$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1252326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd22c…5525backed Yes23c1,000$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2291050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ac0…f261backed Yes17c1,000$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1661030%3 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+495.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04eb…58a0backed Yes4c1,000$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa15b…30f1backed Yes18c989.4$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.784544.4%20 W · 25 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+70.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0370…d000backed Yes3c925.93$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253542.9%15 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d4b…e337backed Yes5c913.85$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick30cpaid+105.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x74c3…bbe6backed Yes5c907.93$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.227728.6%22 W · 55 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-13.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f62…38fcbacked Yes26c902.92$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.044639.1%18 W · 28 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ba1…ef5abacked Yes13c869.69$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1131040%4 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-12.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x996b…1e9cbacked Yes12c800.52$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.93221.9%7 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3b2…4e48backed Yes13c800$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8967…1e9bbacked Yes3c700$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212528%7 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-18.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xefed…fc7ebacked Yes9c699.21$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-28.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3168…6734backed Yes23c690.63$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.63540%14 W · 21 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x72a6…56eebacked Yes13c640.01$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.41850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+43.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd053…f7c0backed Yes21c639.61$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.792927.6%8 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-32.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcec1…9ff5backed Yes16c631.38$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xce0c…1a4ebacked Yes2c625$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3cc…62b1backed Yes8c584.95$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.15per pick33cpaid-69.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4836…5191backed Yes17c565$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49ce…b599backed Yes9c551.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504418.2%8 W · 36 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick16cpaid-33.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14af…376dbacked Yes9c550.83$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-63.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c7c…1b5abacked Yes9c536.01$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid+139.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x836c…0a67backed Yes6c533.29$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.41812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.17per pick29cpaid-74.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x382c…a0d7backed Yes22c500$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1083625%9 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda44…2b09backed Yes7c500$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354129.3%12 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-41.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e9f…aa81backed Yes23c500$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1152326.1%6 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-4.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2433…8fe3backed Yes9c498.53$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fac…574ebacked Yes15c493.42$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751643.8%7 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.15per pick29cpaid+21.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe6df…f7a7backed Yes3c479.34$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d2a…fc3abacked Yes5c465.16$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2390%0 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x50da…0b82backed Yes6c462.8$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2132…4a90backed Yes9c456.53$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5af3…b347backed Yes28c452.75$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes19c450$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.442738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.