Token Launches · resolved market
Will $TRUMP memecoin creator sell by Sunday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9d76774bd99257cca2aa55f2cd2d52213099cbf57c7b3c586db922b8ccdbe29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $191,266
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $166,647
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $191,266 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 2c | 20,855$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.03 | 57 | 5.3%3 W · 54 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 2c | 12,633$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.45 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 2c | 12,633$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.79 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc371…f85dbacked Yes | 3c | 9,418$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -56%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78d7…28f0backed Yes | 1c | 7,104$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 4c | 5,500$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.5 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed Yes | 3c | 5,490$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.21 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7463…f1d3backed Yes | 3c | 5,000$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1875…eb5ebacked Yes | 3c | 3,481$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…a69ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,009$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5a…5ab3backed Yes | 4c | 2,612$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7120…201bbacked Yes | 0c | 2,237$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 6c | 1,803$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.97 | 76 | 21.1%16 W · 60 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc148…71c5backed Yes | 8c | 1,708$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Yes | 2c | 1,697$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…c5abbacked Yes | 7c | 1,618$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 7c | 1,413$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.31 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 1c | 1,407$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b9…4134backed Yes | 2c | 1,056$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb357…efbcbacked Yes | 2c | 1,028$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22d9…1888backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…151abacked Yes | 2c | 999.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0479…a4eabacked Yes | 2c | 999.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x303f…801ebacked Yes | 3c | 895.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 1c | 894$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 45 | 8.9%4 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee7…8f5bbacked Yes | 8c | 886.44$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd295…d0d7backed Yes | 2c | 880.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…4fedbacked Yes | 2c | 817.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6063…03f6backed Yes | 1c | 777.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaef…6234backed Yes | 6c | 682.62$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.32 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…9218backed Yes | 14c | 674.42$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +52%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x266d…a24ebacked Yes | 4c | 657.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23c0…564cbacked Yes | 10c | 642.5$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c51…f8febacked Yes | 2c | 630.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…86a8backed Yes | 3c | 570.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…b703backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…fa31backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00ea…f801backed Yes | 5c | 499.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaf…18bebacked Yes | 4c | 499.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca3…1b52backed Yes | 5c | 435.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d67…4e16backed Yes | 6c | 351.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df7…5b21backed Yes | 5c | 329.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 12c | 312.58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…2358backed Yes | 4c | 312.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcda…60a8backed Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf369…acb6backed Yes | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x352d…4584backed Yes | 8c | 205.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae76…46d1backed Yes | 14c | 202.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e72…361ebacked Yes | 10c | 154.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc12…7c4fbacked Yes | 13c | 140$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc288…3480backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.