TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel declares war on Iran in October?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$269,772
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$254,521

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $269,772 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes1c49,554$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644.22015%3 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-63.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a18…4507backed Yes1c15,924$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fa8…f84abacked Yes3c9,895$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.67166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-68.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes1c7,066$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.0126423.9%63 W · 201 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes1c6,562$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.5277636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes3c4,835$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.5228427.8%79 W · 205 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-37.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e7…5fb6backed Yes11c4,543$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62c3…b47abacked Yes10c4,024$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3811…2d73backed Yes10c3,027$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+23.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21dc…3c76backed Yes1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301020%2 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-60.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x717e…6498backed Yes3c2,580$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.593716.2%6 W · 31 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-42.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaab…fc76backed Yes13c2,274$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.62911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-61.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b29…5967backed Yes4c1,825$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.811070%7 W · 3 L+3.9wins+0.39per pick31cpaid+156.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb052…ff06backed Yes4c1,776$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.635315.1%8 W · 45 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick11cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd221…a44bbacked Yes5c1,609$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755425.9%14 W · 40 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick18cpaid+22.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c36…dc29backed Yes13c1,504$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x50bc…78c2backed Yes22c1,421$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.3350%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe604…0493backed Yes21c1,338$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b93…3c34backed Yes6c1,179$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.453116.1%5 W · 26 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick17cpaid+37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa630…bf53backed Yes4c1,115$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b07…291abacked Yes23c1,087$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-54.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00fa…30bebacked Yes9c1,075$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006420.3%13 W · 51 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-26.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcec1…9ff5backed Yes14c1,071$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x906e…a4e0backed Yes8c1,015$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.67633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0153…b512backed Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-73.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x039e…c5e0backed Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick26cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes7c1,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702810.7%3 W · 25 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-49.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71cd…912dbacked Yes5c878.88$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.074520%9 W · 36 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacc1…6a67backed Yes17c859.62$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-34.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed Yes21c854.06$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.225747.4%27 W · 30 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa23d…69f7backed Yes2c785.28$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1550%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x25ab…3f33backed Yes9c748.48$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.87333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73ac…c1f3backed Yes8c715$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5570%0 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3b03…ac9bbacked Yes2c714.29$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7140%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97ea…56c6backed Yes4c710$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.09560%3 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick32cpaid+93.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0370…d000backed Yes4c654.54$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253542.9%15 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes3c640.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.438220.7%17 W · 65 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x12ed…cdc9backed Yes16c608.17$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes4c568.77$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4143212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ba2…95cebacked Yes4c563.65$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick29cpaid-22.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c8f…aceebacked Yes5c534.34$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ed4…366abacked Yes16c468.52$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-61.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3889…b339backed Yes4c464.17$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick15cpaid+56.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbffe…6492backed No75c463.28$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.822157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd68…746abacked Yes16c459.98$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.45158.8%30 W · 21 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+36.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x163c…9da5backed Yes5c444.98$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6db3…fd7ebacked Yes23c434.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick64cpaid-46.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x13b4…f4d9backed Yes14c420.27$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8ba…a286backed Yes3c371.29$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.694030%12 W · 28 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93aa…21f4backed Yes25c349.08$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.991010%1 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-68.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e8f…f9e9backed Yes27c339.35$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902222.7%5 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-38.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5643…5390backed Yes30c335$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100120%0 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2705…a12abacked Yes15c334$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick24cpaid-74.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5572…2822backed Yes5c330$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa244…8e63backed Yes16c313.25$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5011531.3%36 W · 79 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x187f…34ddbacked Yes23c300$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9c4…13d1backed Yes8c290.03$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.69520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-48.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes6c285.63$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9663%2 W · 64 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-95.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6e5a…563dbacked Yes4c275.23$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3630%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc103…1138backed Yes22c239.41$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.8630%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6248…51cfbacked Yes12c237.82$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.46425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-37.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68e2…106abacked Yes13c228.57$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3070%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2df…7f57backed Yes22c227.27$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502030%6 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-42%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b9e…bb02backed Yes12c216.67$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x996b…1e9cbacked Yes16c200$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323221.9%7 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d6e…cd39backed No79c189.75$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.07633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-31.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1241…2713backed Yes10c173.3$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ba1…ef5abacked Yes9c165$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151040%4 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-12.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5487…a36dbacked Yes8c155$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.41040%4 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-40.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe698…3b09backed Yes15c150$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-66%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa15b…30f1backed No76c141.18$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.584544.4%20 W · 25 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+70.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xefed…fc7ebacked Yes25c134.44$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.96633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-28.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c89…9fa4backed Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1080%0 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb715…a663backed Yes10c123.11$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121520%3 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-63.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed No77c118.7$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.35143.1%22 W · 29 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-15%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c98…eef4backed No73c110$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.31752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No74c109.57$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2931649.7%157 W · 159 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x013d…3e88backed No60c105$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422725.9%7 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-44.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0bbb…55dbbacked Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick22cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a6f…bc71backed Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick40cpaid-62.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4e09…da86backed Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xccb0…d15cbacked Yes40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-62.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa631…9248backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x572c…9a91backed Yes22c67.34$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…5500backed Yes24c66.66$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99c3…c056backed Yes16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f13…3100backed Yes16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab75…738fbacked No77c29.99$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.82450%12 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf5c…3912backed No80c29.99$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63762.2%23 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.