TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Fischer win Nebraska senate election by 7+ points?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$172,536
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$167,997

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $172,536 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb747…b050backed No50c40,664$20,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,4423336.4%12 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-43.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes50c16,341$8,181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,180.875841.4%24 W · 34 L+6.1wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+20%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x57c5…07aabacked Yes50c14,893$7,447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,446.524242.9%18 W · 24 L+0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4192…7f00backed No21c10,626$2,251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,374.87922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick16cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf78…c8c4backed Yes50c8,000$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0002944.8%13 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No29c6,545$1,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,614.684037.5%15 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95a3…046ebacked No9c4,325$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,931.792100%2 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.90per pick10cpaid+904%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No68c3,942$2,681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,260.3815150.3%76 W · 75 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8890…79bdbacked Yes31c3,750$1,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,154.222128.6%6 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes34c3,610$1,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,231.086035%21 W · 39 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-35.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad28…1601backed Yes50c2,954$1,469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,469.333345.5%15 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Yes32c2,873$914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$913.875738.6%22 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7304…0379backed Yes80c2,514$2,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,010.5922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick44cpaid-70.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed No47c1,223$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$652.574957.1%28 W · 21 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+32.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed No26c1,216$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$904.04333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick20cpaid+29.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c2e…75eabacked No12c1,200$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0602231.8%7 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-21.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x33cc…a0b6backed No40c1,195$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$715.42837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4558…a2b3backed No69c1,193$823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.012433.3%8 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe182…e767backed No17c1,180$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$979.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.83per pick17cpaid+488.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e5a…4ef5backed Yes59c1,164$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6821968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.3wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+18.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes38c1,080$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.285824.1%14 W · 44 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick27cpaid+10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x34cd…fe7dbacked No61c999.98$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.99250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No62c992.38$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.458133.3%27 W · 54 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-31.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31e9…7d7cbacked No16c991.77$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$836.77250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+219.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea3e…b956backed Yes61c972$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592.921931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-54.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad28…1354backed Yes80c941.39$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750.210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1921…5efdbacked No44c890.95$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.7250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e56…35d5backed Yes28c846.36$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.5330%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf31…fef0backed No32c791.71$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3450…b297backed No64c785.57$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.67250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x22ae…e931backed Yes35c761.43$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26630%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5dd2…f5c0backed Yes42c689.64$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedaa…2f33backed Yes30c666.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid+23.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92c7…c136backed Yes32c500$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick24cpaid-71.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d1b…39b9backed Yes38c500$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked No63c499.98$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.993250%16 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed No20c490.05$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.141643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73c7…b175backed No59c484.59$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.682100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+48%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4294…ee29backed No63c476.19$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.19560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4771…bc47backed No22c455.39$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+357.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd621…bc07backed Yes32c430$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.830%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99b0…70c4backed No66c392.51$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.16366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+102%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e9f…bbe5backed No61c383.66$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x169e…de26backed No52c310.25$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.24366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes68c300$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.2527222.1%60 W · 212 L-15.0wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-44.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x47f4…5d4bbacked No66c299.28$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.111428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-49.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6392…6cc3backed No49c290.49$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No44c288.44$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.862733.3%9 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-24.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes19c256.26$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.8334129.3%100 W · 241 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x740e…fff3backed Yes40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7b1…7f9bbacked No20c250$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2001100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+400%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd975…c6d6backed Yes32c235.01$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.012528%7 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd42f…047dbacked No33c225.64$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.64922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-51.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ef7…3b22backed Yes78c200$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-52.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed No78c198.41$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.97296.9%2 W · 27 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-27.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffb3…ad95backed No34c192.59$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.293100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+125.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x80d1…f6c4backed Yes79c190.13$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe26…5c6bbacked No73c176.63$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21fe…da90backed No46c171.35$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.881353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+28.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb0d…5a29backed No63c158.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.73633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-51.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25c1…1624backed No64c156.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.25250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ed1…07ddbacked Yes65c151.32$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61d0…fca2backed Yes46c150$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.5560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+64%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f99…9b59backed No40c119.08$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.861233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick19cpaid-12.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x25bf…a447backed Yes40c114.75$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cf3…87b3backed No55c111$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.95339.1%3 W · 30 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-80.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3eb…0829backed No67c103.04$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.82250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-25.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac45…20c5backed No17c100$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.251050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74c3…c1a8backed No22c100$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78650%3 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+184.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb236…1d5dbacked No21c100$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.61612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f04…d82ebacked No74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick34cpaid+42.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7cca…27d3backed No75c93.11$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.37250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-33.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf37…8b49backed Yes35c90$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.251631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-55.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd35…113ebacked Yes70c85.71$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb27…4d56backed No54c84.5$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fff…5c34backed Yes32c79.25$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb114…bdcbbacked No39c77.91$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.913100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+116.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2f5f…cf95backed No67c77.67$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.63683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick70cpaid+12.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe056…7891backed No61c75.25$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c69…9695backed No35c71.63$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe743…da62backed No70c71.43$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed No15c69$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.461735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+39.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked No60c60.97$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.393537.1%13 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid+17.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8cb…945cbacked No38c52.63$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.63540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2459…8d76backed Yes39c51.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.061414.3%2 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-79.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa88d…221cbacked No35c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.5540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick29cpaid-11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2db1…4351backed No50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22ee…fbe9backed Yes79c50$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-39.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No61c43.66$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.984520%9 W · 36 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-53.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xee47…769ebacked No70c35.71$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcb1…a2dfbacked Yes80c31.25$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8960…93fbbacked No72c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d12…ec60backed Yes77c30$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3846…c908backed No61c29.43$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.482365.2%15 W · 8 L+3.4wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+18.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes40c27.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-40.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cdd…9b4fbacked Yes78c25.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4273…fa0dbacked No72c20.83$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.832100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f6…3cd9backed No70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6825%2 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-66.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5874…05f7backed No60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.11643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-26.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb336…4e71backed No64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.