Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the August 2025 unemployment rate be 4.2%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6aedb21e3b7ace35c1c279e325309af3dcf5e93d67afd8954f63a39cea319d46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,430
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd93c…689cbacked Yes | 26c | 1,817$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.26 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 29c | 1,737$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.39 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 31c | 1,618$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.79 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 29c | 1,616$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.31 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 28c | 1,343$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.75 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d64…527ebacked Yes | 33c | 1,230$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 70c | 1,061$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.65 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 72c | 843$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.04 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98fa…d698backed Yes | 29c | 712$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.46 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c8…9be6backed Yes | 29c | 690.52$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 27c | 629.99$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.8 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 29c | 628.41$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.24 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…1531backed No | 70c | 544.06$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.32 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 26c | 523$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.92 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e2…b98cbacked Yes | 28c | 500$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…06afbacked No | 67c | 447.7$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.74 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 426.96$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.92 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 29c | 400$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 400$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 71c | 400$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 30c | 400$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.5 | 90 | 24.4%22 W · 68 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…9266backed No | 74c | 300$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e4…eff6backed Yes | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x340d…0f96backed Yes | 29c | 258.62$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd28…94d4backed Yes | 29c | 170.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed Yes | 32c | 139.84$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed No | 76c | 127.66$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88bb…8d2cbacked Yes | 32c | 121$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed Yes | 30c | 110$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 73c | 109.09$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 27c | 108$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 133 | 38.3%51 W · 82 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3db…1959backed Yes | 32c | 106.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 102$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c9…bc00backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 27c | 90.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e75…ab84backed Yes | 27c | 74.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 73c | 66.9$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d0…d95cbacked No | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6395…6735backed Yes | 27c | 55.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd14e…7e5fbacked Yes | 27c | 54.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…2220backed No | 71c | 51.01$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 71c | 50.46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e15…6ce6backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 27c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…cc33backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x541c…c462backed Yes | 26c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd188…ae31backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the August 2025 unemployment rate be 4.2%?this page
- Will the August 2025 unemployment rate be 4.0%?No won
- Will the August 2025 unemployment rate be 4.1%?No won
- Will the August 2025 unemployment rate be 4.3%?Yes won
- Will the August 2025 unemployment rate be ≤3.9%?No won
- Will the August 2025 unemployment rate be ≥4.4%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.