Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the August 2025 unemployment rate be ≥4.4%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2b8ef9a91b83147461d7ffd387677a64700d16391fc8440404aa10d0ba4221a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,566
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,914
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,566 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 19c | 6,398$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199.79 | 104 | 33.7%35 W · 69 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 19c | 3,843$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.84 | 128 | 20.3%26 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fe…79c1backed Yes | 19c | 1,463$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 16c | 1,154$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.52 | 71 | 22.5%16 W · 55 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 17c | 1,127$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.31 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 19c | 999.99$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.5 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 22c | 916.04$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 18c | 888$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.51 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 16c | 548.18$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.42 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 17c | 538.45$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.41 | 133 | 38.3%51 W · 82 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd6…e746backed Yes | 19c | 522.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 18c | 499.99$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.56 | 90 | 24.4%22 W · 68 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 400$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.54 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…06afbacked Yes | 17c | 370.5$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.99 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 20c | 341.46$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.45 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x340d…0f96backed Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 22c | 231$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d9…ab03backed Yes | 16c | 211.42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…67ccbacked Yes | 17c | 180$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 78c | 179$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.38 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 13c | 155.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 19c | 152$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 78c | 120$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1318…df41backed Yes | 20c | 110$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcce2…d58bbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc924…567abacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.31per pick | 47cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 18c | 70.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 22c | 64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d3…634fbacked Yes | 19c | 60.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 80c | 22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the August 2025 unemployment rate be ≥4.4%?this page
- Will the August 2025 unemployment rate be 4.0%?No won
- Will the August 2025 unemployment rate be 4.1%?No won
- Will the August 2025 unemployment rate be 4.2%?No won
- Will the August 2025 unemployment rate be 4.3%?Yes won
- Will the August 2025 unemployment rate be ≤3.9%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.