Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the August 2025 unemployment rate be 4.1%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa47d5522a14e98422b06053bc153cbb731321e286c12a5a8f75036f6c302e167
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,337
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,101
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,337 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x35c0…81d6backed Yes | 0c | 10,282$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 7c | 4,064$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.26 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 2c | 2,669$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.51 | 133 | 38.3%51 W · 82 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d64…527ebacked Yes | 9c | 2,613$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 7c | 1,700$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 6c | 1,219$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.97 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e4…eff6backed Yes | 12c | 1,030$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 10c | 999.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 7c | 731$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x340d…0f96backed Yes | 7c | 400.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes | 3c | 319.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 11c | 278$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 5c | 250$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e75…ab84backed Yes | 8c | 186.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88bb…8d2cbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the August 2025 unemployment rate be 4.1%?this page
- Will the August 2025 unemployment rate be 4.0%?No won
- Will the August 2025 unemployment rate be 4.2%?No won
- Will the August 2025 unemployment rate be 4.3%?Yes won
- Will the August 2025 unemployment rate be ≤3.9%?No won
- Will the August 2025 unemployment rate be ≥4.4%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.