Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the August 2025 unemployment rate be 4.3%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf236e6e0a2a364caf5c46d017c9ea0ae50b603a226d24bf5502955b2b3f5188a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,705
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,303
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,705 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ee4…3485backed Yes | 56c | 3,551$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,550.95 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +39%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 46c | 3,421$1,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,842.87 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 42c | 3,041$1,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,759.33 | 128 | 20.3%26 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 42c | 2,274$961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,313.4 | 104 | 33.7%35 W · 69 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 42c | 1,708$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.8 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 47c | 1,339$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.7 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d64…527ebacked No | 56c | 1,153$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 42c | 1,115$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.59 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 45c | 935.77$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.01 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 57c | 879.91$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.65 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 40c | 799.53$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.02 | 90 | 24.4%22 W · 68 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…1531backed No | 50c | 797.43$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.71 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 636.29$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.69 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 51c | 593.56$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98fa…d698backed Yes | 52c | 430$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.34 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…cb00backed Yes | 40c | 400$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 42c | 400$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 41c | 400$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fe…79c1backed Yes | 52c | 383.62$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 43c | 374.76$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.77 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…3e08backed No | 56c | 351.48$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.83 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 51c | 277.69$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.68 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 48c | 263.5$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.34 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 46c | 254.01$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.46 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146c…f5ccbacked Yes | 41c | 241.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc924…567abacked No | 54c | 236$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.08 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.31per pick | 47cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 43c | 231$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.67 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb635…f0fdbacked Yes | 57c | 184.44$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed No | 40c | 178.01$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.48 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3db…1959backed Yes | 41c | 174.9$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba68…7ee2backed Yes | 53c | 160$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed Yes | 51c | 150.88$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.42 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 57c | 150.44$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.2 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe95d…b2a1backed Yes | 49c | 143.53$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x340d…0f96backed Yes | 46c | 130.87$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.87 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88bb…8d2cbacked Yes | 41c | 121$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.39 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 55c | 115.6$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.12 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1318…df41backed Yes | 42c | 110$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.7 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 51c | 105$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.94 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…06afbacked No | 56c | 102.04$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.04 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b86…bd28backed Yes | 56c | 89.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…67ccbacked Yes | 42c | 80$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93fc…a0e4backed Yes | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 29c | 48.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…35e4backed Yes | 60c | 33.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe10a…09babacked Yes | 45c | 30.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dda…a444backed Yes | 45c | 26.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…e073backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes | 69c | 14.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the August 2025 unemployment rate be 4.3%?this page
- Will the August 2025 unemployment rate be 4.0%?No won
- Will the August 2025 unemployment rate be 4.1%?No won
- Will the August 2025 unemployment rate be 4.2%?No won
- Will the August 2025 unemployment rate be ≤3.9%?No won
- Will the August 2025 unemployment rate be ≥4.4%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.