World Politics · resolved market
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Canadian federal election be between 20-21m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3717de3fe4690c2fa53bb581cf137c3fe1695c97c613db984fdd282d9f392673
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,697
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,275
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,697 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 10c | 4,149$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.06 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 16c | 2,628$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.1 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…0848backed Yes | 16c | 2,528$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.5 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 2c | 2,276$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.09 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd67d…9cafbacked Yes | 23c | 2,241$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa099…d81fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,913$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.61 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe379…6c49backed Yes | 15c | 1,371$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9dc…528fbacked Yes | 21c | 1,150$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.38 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 2c | 1,039$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 79c | 999.99$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 121 | 29.8%36 W · 85 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 78c | 708.87$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.12 | 197 | 42.6%84 W · 113 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781f…6763backed Yes | 21c | 499.99$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.65 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x821f…c3ffbacked Yes | 17c | 476.19$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…2794backed Yes | 12c | 400$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 347.76$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.09 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd23…0242backed Yes | 12c | 217.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -34%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…a910backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x053a…249abacked Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55c6…c338backed Yes | 21c | 142.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 33cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xace1…27c7backed Yes | 9c | 125.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 20c | 91.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9b…0f44backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 80c | 23.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will voter turnout in the 2025 Canadian federal election be between 20-21m?this page
- Will voter turnout in the 2025 Canadian federal election be between 16-17m?No won
- Will voter turnout in the 2025 Canadian federal election be between 17-18m?No won
- Will voter turnout in the 2025 Canadian federal election be between 18-19m?No won
- Will voter turnout in the 2025 Canadian federal election be between 19-20m?Yes won
- Will voter turnout in the 2025 Canadian federal election be greater than 21m?No won
- Will voter turnout in the 2025 Canadian federal election be less than 16m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.