World Politics · resolved market
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Canadian federal election be greater than 21m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b7bb3d12c8fea618f687355d9e3c05a9d4710ba2177ebc40873742aadd9317e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,700
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,405
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,700 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes | 8c | 3,653$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.79 | 182 | 14.8%27 W · 155 L | +11.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd67d…9cafbacked Yes | 8c | 2,579$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.29 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe379…6c49backed Yes | 10c | 1,491$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 9c | 1,113$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.48 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781f…6763backed Yes | 10c | 1,105$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.54 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa099…d81fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,091$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.76 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd23…0242backed Yes | 2c | 658.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -34%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeada…9c3cbacked Yes | 9c | 544.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x821f…c3ffbacked Yes | 8c | 518.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…0848backed Yes | 11c | 120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 93.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will voter turnout in the 2025 Canadian federal election be greater than 21m?this page
- Will voter turnout in the 2025 Canadian federal election be between 16-17m?No won
- Will voter turnout in the 2025 Canadian federal election be between 17-18m?No won
- Will voter turnout in the 2025 Canadian federal election be between 18-19m?No won
- Will voter turnout in the 2025 Canadian federal election be between 19-20m?Yes won
- Will voter turnout in the 2025 Canadian federal election be between 20-21m?No won
- Will voter turnout in the 2025 Canadian federal election be less than 16m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.