Fed Rates · resolved market
Will the December 2025 FOMC decision result in a 25bp cut with >2 dissents?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5942b98a5096325931c9559b863509290e93476bb6b65068c954a8532edd0e60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,786
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,283
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,786 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e30…1e50backed Yes | 38c | 2,765$1,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,710.09 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8d…84bcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,999$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,979.01 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +1,065.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d6…4841backed Yes | 69c | 1,050$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a6…409cbacked No | 39c | 974.95$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.73 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed No | 77c | 869.48$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.7 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +469.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 67c | 798.15$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.54 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3b…6ba5backed Yes | 63c | 767.41$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.41 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc83d…05a8backed Yes | 75c | 665.28$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab57…842bbacked No | 30c | 650.76$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.18 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -88%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 17c | 606.14$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.4 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 488.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5158…1ca0backed No | 42c | 385.54$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.39 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 28c | 383.16$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.72 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…00f9backed Yes | 55c | 364.99$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdab1…d569backed Yes | 67c | 299.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed No | 31c | 285.09$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.92 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 23c | 230.58$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa405…99acbacked Yes | 69c | 207.33$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.85 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 38c | 199.58$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.68 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…251cbacked Yes | 74c | 191$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.05 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9b…5f85backed Yes | 55c | 180$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 61c | 166.59$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.57 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…87e3backed Yes | 65c | 154.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.05 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -78%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 16c | 153.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.36 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +5.4wins | +0.49per pick | 23cpaid | +236.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x47f1…30f8backed Yes | 72c | 150$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebad…f22bbacked Yes | 56c | 143.43$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.43 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c39…cb43backed Yes | 72c | 139.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 28c | 131.37$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 49c | 116.66$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.6 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe14d…9865backed Yes | 77c | 100.03$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.71 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…b807backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8275…ef90backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…95adbacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7336…23e3backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.02 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4486…f7c5backed Yes | 65c | 92.8$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 28c | 90.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba64…f4c4backed Yes | 68c | 88.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4396…f0e1backed Yes | 62c | 80.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0dd…45e7backed Yes | 74c | 79.77$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbba9…e9bebacked Yes | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x299e…129ebacked Yes | 64c | 78.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 55c | 72.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.54 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40fe…3bfdbacked Yes | 69c | 72.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b5…63abbacked Yes | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4d…07bdbacked Yes | 71c | 70.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22df…ac97backed Yes | 57c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04e8…a0bfbacked Yes | 75c | 69.97$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c94…9b01backed Yes | 73c | 68.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfab…7348backed Yes | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cb…0a41backed Yes | 71c | 60.4$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf55b…5a41backed Yes | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2f…fe3ebacked Yes | 54c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6896…a6c0backed Yes | 66c | 58.21$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1401…0707backed No | 28c | 57.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ad…1ee5backed Yes | 65c | 55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x835b…7e13backed Yes | 55c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf235…7edabacked Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5da6…d7cebacked Yes | 67c | 48.79$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 49c | 48.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde5e…48a3backed Yes | 64c | 46.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7db…d69cbacked Yes | 78c | 45.14$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebf…a54cbacked Yes | 71c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62a2…de2fbacked Yes | 64c | 44.55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11f2…3efdbacked Yes | 68c | 44.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e03…60d1backed No | 25c | 44.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…0c00backed Yes | 53c | 41.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f81…60e1backed Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x633c…b6d1backed Yes | 55c | 38.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +26%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 47c | 36.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3b…ce3bbacked Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d78…e8cdbacked Yes | 70c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…df65backed Yes | 71c | 30.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb435…a9f7backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb71a…2bbcbacked Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46df…1e47backed Yes | 69c | 27.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab2b…0d84backed Yes | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca3…c270backed Yes | 65c | 26.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf84…4ab2backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b9…5fdebacked Yes | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abe…9c76backed Yes | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5221…bd4dbacked Yes | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec9b…563abacked Yes | 75c | 20.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a1…34b2backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d2…d6d2backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…c204backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb5…ecbfbacked Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf28c…e3f2backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x309a…342dbacked Yes | 63c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c13…eb7fbacked Yes | 67c | 17.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…047cbacked Yes | 61c | 16.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x123c…678ebacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the December 2025 FOMC decision result in a 25bp cut with >2 dissents?this page
- Will the December 2025 FOMC decision result in a 25bp cut with ≤2 dissents?No won
- Will the December 2025 FOMC decision result in any other outcome?No won
- Will the December 2025 FOMC decision result in no change with >2 dissents?No won
- Will the December 2025 FOMC decision result in no change with ≤2 dissents?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.