Fed Rates · resolved market
Will the December 2025 FOMC decision result in a 25bp cut with ≤2 dissents?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe882d57e7dedf76d85bb0eacf06f53247b27013d0efd744d6525872cc402c5a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,215
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,720
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,215 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 63c | 6,528$4,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,124.09 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +469.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 25c | 1,471$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.65 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb835…683bbacked Yes | 29c | 1,010$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed Yes | 35c | 972.66$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.78 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5158…1ca0backed Yes | 53c | 942.21$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.58 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…5772backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 75c | 424.82$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.45 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 408.6$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.32 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 14c | 288$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.31 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x62a2…de2fbacked Yes | 31c | 263.36$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 70 | 17.1%12 W · 58 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 31c | 249.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 66c | 206.41$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.29 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 20c | 198.3$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.03 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +5.4wins | +0.49per pick | 23cpaid | +236.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…251cbacked No | 80c | 189.21$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 69c | 180.68$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 64c | 158.76$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.88 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 73c | 152.94$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.66 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a6…409cbacked Yes | 21c | 149.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 20c | 130$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…4510backed No | 70c | 114.39$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.39 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 113.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7be3…afa3backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5400…1342backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47ef…6f9dbacked Yes | 35c | 92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6156…6ad5backed Yes | 27c | 77.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40fe…3bfdbacked No | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b5…63abbacked No | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…95adbacked Yes | 44c | 63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe95b…85edbacked No | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e03…60d1backed Yes | 23c | 46.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7279…a05cbacked No | 72c | 43.71$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9270…7c9ebacked No | 75c | 41.18$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f7…f224backed No | 59c | 22.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the December 2025 FOMC decision result in a 25bp cut with ≤2 dissents?this page
- Will the December 2025 FOMC decision result in a 25bp cut with >2 dissents?Yes won
- Will the December 2025 FOMC decision result in any other outcome?No won
- Will the December 2025 FOMC decision result in no change with >2 dissents?No won
- Will the December 2025 FOMC decision result in no change with ≤2 dissents?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.