Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 110-119 times?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b33321990824e5e28b67420c823f48ff397e5e79e5faa06b6ad83a5f5a33275
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,445
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,064
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,445 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5be9…9106backed Yes | 16c | 1,032$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.87 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +139.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf45…d297backed Yes | 14c | 591.77$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.62 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 3c | 411.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…b637backed Yes | 21c | 297$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb677…46f6backed Yes | 20c | 250$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed No | 73c | 205.95$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.89 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2b…1298backed Yes | 28c | 200.05$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…6501backed Yes | 6c | 163.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0002…5e91backed Yes | 29c | 161.15$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.51 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa162…0b55backed Yes | 10c | 160$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x815b…5ef7backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +140.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4b…0590backed Yes | 17c | 149.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9b…40dcbacked Yes | 13c | 143.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 27c | 134$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.73 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | +187%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6693…fca0backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa34…66fbbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9629…f640backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab2d…f250backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 16c | 97.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…984ebacked Yes | 17c | 93.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b79…b3febacked Yes | 22c | 86.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8c…fae7backed Yes | 19c | 81.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +116.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01f7…02dfbacked Yes | 19c | 72.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x838c…5252backed Yes | 24c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fae…4392backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 110-119 times?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100-109 times?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 120 or more times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 60-69 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 70-79 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 80-89 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 90-99 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 60 times?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.